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Conway
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 25, 2004 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Margin of victory over crappy competition means little ... MLF has done nothing of note for almost two years ... And while Capel looked good early on, hea appreas to be in the tank now ... Collins needs to be running 10.10 or better without strong winds ... And needs to be winning against some folks that are in contention ... Then I will consider him a possible threat ... But right now, he's just another guy on the circuit trying to earn a payday ...
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k gill
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 4:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I disagree. As i said before collins is a championship runner and should make the final but we all agree that barring injury powell looks like a contender for the title.

As for MLF it seems he may end up being just a teenage prodigy like Roy martin was in the mid-eighties but will never be able to emulate that talent in the senior ranks. I hope i,m wrong though .
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Conway
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 5:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure why people consider Collins a "championshiip" sprinter ... He's only won 1 ... And that was in a down year against a weak field ... I know he also won a Commonwealth title, but again against a weak field in which the two favorites went down to injury in mid race !!! Not a great pedigree ... Collins, like Darren Campbell, is a solid sprinter who needs lots to go wrong inorder to contend ...

I agree about MLF ... He just doens't seem to have what it takes ... Too bad becaue he seemed to be a great physical talent as a youngster ... But he hasn't seemed the same since that Commonwealth run (he beign one of the favorites that went down) ...

In oder to contend this year one will almost have to be a solid sub 10 sprinter ... This year the 100 is a lot different than last year ...
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 7:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For what it's worth, I've been on record numerous times saying I didn't see the big deal about MLF... Never saw anything exceptional about him.

Dan
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Conway
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 7:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LOL ... Now Dan .. As an 18 year old MLF was holding his own against the best that Britain had to offer ... And he was dominating Junior Worlds etc ... He was on par with what Usain Bolt has done to date, minus the 19.93 ... And was equal to what Darrell Brown did (actually a bit better) prior to Brown's WJR run and subsequent silver at last year's Worlds ...

He was running right by Collins in the Commonwealth final when he pulled up !!! And since then it has been down hill for him ... Doesn't seem like the injury was debilitating, but he has not been the same sprinter since ... And I was sure that with Chambers getting suspended last year, that MLF would feel like he was the newly crowned British king !!! But that hasn't happened either ...

A lot of people say it is because he needs a new coach ... And I might agree with that a bit ... But it seems as much (if not more) mental to me ...And not sure a coach can fix that ...
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Keep in mind, though, I'm not of the mind that fast times at an early age are necessarily meaningful. As often as not, they're just indicative of an expedited growth curve with an early ceiling. It's something that can't be quantified just by times... It's more about how they look running those times, and MLF just never had "it" in my eyes. Brown and Bolt look like kids that are still a long ways from their limits. MLF looked like he was already there 2-3 years ago.

(Of course, I wondered the same about Webb and he's had a nice "comeback.")

Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where most athletes tend to reach their best in the early twenties and can hold onto that form for many years, the tendency for most athletes who approach world class in their teens is to fizzle out when they reach thier twenties. Whether it has to do with an expedited growth curve or psycological factors (lack of motivation later on, immaturity etc) or both is a matter of debate but it seems certain that unfortunately Bolt, Brown, or MLF will not all go on to be the top stars over the next decade. The laws of probability are against it.
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Conway
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I do find it very interesting that both Brown and Bolt are currently injured and on the shelf .... Bolt has not raced since his WJR 19.93 ... You would think, if anything, that youth would be in their favor when it comes to avoiding injuries and/or recovering much more rapidly from them .... I once thought that these two were being brought along very well ... Now I am not so sure ...
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USGOLD2004
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 12:05 pm    Post subject: Outdoors 2004 Reply with quote

But you have to remember Bolt isn't even 18 yet. I mean a kid running that fast at such an early age, has to mean something. Brown too, he just turned 19, but as an 18 year old ran 10.01. Both were WJR's. If they can get away from their injuries and continue to progress, we could see both of them breaking WR's. You can't doubt them, because no one knows what their path is.

Jason
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

History does tend to indicate top Juniors don't go on to be top Seniors, though. Marion Jones is a notable exception, and Allyson Felix is looking to follow in her footsteps. But beyond that, there aren't a whole lot of examples.

Dan
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Kishan Gill
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It,s certainly turning out to be an exciting rivalry for the future between the carribean and american sprinters....echoes of crawford,quarrie,williams,glance etc in the 70,s. I hope it lives upto expectations.

Theirs nothing more boring than one athlete dominating for years like lewis, greene (as exciting as they are to watch ) ,than good old competitive rivalry.
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 26, 2004 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agreed. Part of what made Atlanta one of the greatest races ever, in my mind, was the uncertainty how it would play out. No single dominant sprinter, nerves getting rattled through repeated false starts, and ... a WR!

Dan
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Conway
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Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Tue Jul 27, 2004 6:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure I would consider Marion to be an exception ... She did nothing for over 4 years ... Its not like she was a dominating junior and then continued forward to become a dominating senior ... She was all but forgotten for an entire Olympiad (four year period) ... then suddenly in '97 there she was Ms domination ... Totally different than what Allyson Felix (for example) is doing ... Allyson has gone straight from the junior ranks into the senior ranks and won the US Trials - and hopes to do the same in Athens ...

I mentioned the injuries to Bolt and Brown becasue injury seems to be one of the enemies of young stars ... Taking their bodies to those levels early seems to put undo stresses on a young body not quite ready .. And historicall this has often been too much to overcome ... We will see if that is the case for these two or if they are able to overcome the odds ... There is no disputing the talent they have shown to date .. The question is will they be able to improve and build upon it ...

I agree about rivalries ... The sport thrives best when there are rivalries ... And not just in the sprints but in all events ... Greene v Montgomery was supposed to be a rivalry that never quite got off the ground ... Wiliams v Quarrie was a great rivalry for 5 years or so ... Sanford v Floyd was great for a couple seasons ... Lewis v Johnson was awesome until 2 days after the Seoul final ... There really hasn't been a good rivalry since ... But it does look like the US v the Caribbean is on tap for this year's Games ... Though I think that is only in the 100 and 200 ... I don't see any Caribbean strength in the quarter right now ... But the 4x1 should be a burner if the open sprints turn out the way I think they are going to ...
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USGOLD2004
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 27, 2004 11:13 am    Post subject: Outdoors Reply with quote

The best part of Atlanta in 96' was when Michael Johnson shattered the 200m WR and the 400m WR, with times of 19.32s and 43.18s respectively, neither of these records will be broken in the next 5 if not 10 years. But the saying is records are made to be broken.

Jason
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Dan
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 27, 2004 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 400m record was actually set in Sydney.

Dan
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