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Fastest 10m Split in the Near Future
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MiamiD J30
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2003 2:42 pm    Post subject: Fastest 10m Split in the Near Future Reply with quote

Hey, Dan, I've been looking at the old 10m splits one that, X-King started.
And thought who would break the .82sec split time by Maurice?

I think that since MFL is still young, he will probably improve a lot, so he might be able to get .79-.81 someday.

So i'm asking all of you out there, who do you think will break the .82sec barrier set by MO?

And what do you guys think, if the fastest split possible in the next 10 yrs?

I think its around .78-.79.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And this is one of the links about Chris McKenzie:
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/asu/0814asufbnb0814.html

Its a pretty good site.

Jason
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2003 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll be very surprised if MLF breaks that mark. I seem to be one of the few people that was never very impressed with him from the start, and now that he's slipped, I see it as even less likely.

Gatlin is the only one I see of the current crop of sprinters with the potential to dip under that mark, but even he is more of a smooth sprinter than a power sprinter, so I'm not sure it's realistic. If anyone breaks it, it'll probably be someone we don't yet know about or another absolutely perfect conditions race like Tim's WR.

Dan
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MiamiD J30
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2003 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey Dan, I just looked at some stuff about Justin Gatlin, and he is pretty lean at 6'1, 168 lbs. But even, if he is a smooth sprinter, he can get into the weight room, and improve on lower and upper-body strength, I bet, he could break the WR, and dip under the .81-.82 mark.

I mean he is only 21, and he has ran a 9.97 100m, and a 19.98 200m. I bet those we're faster than Greene. So if he improves the best he can in his form, and in his strength, there is no doubt he won't break any of the marks today.

So its pretty amazing to think of what he alone could do.

Jason
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2003 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't pay much attention to age or measurements. Anyone can add strength and power, but few people can change their style. Gatlin's style is fluidity; changing it probably would not be for the better. As he fine tunes his top speed, he may be able to maintain it much better than the power sprinters we've seen to date.

Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2003 4:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I don't pay much attention to age or measurements.

Let me clarify one thing. In my opinion, age is much less important than rate of improvement. Lots of athletes peak very early, whereas others start slower but keep improving. Age by itself means next to nothing. Take a couple Brits, for example. If MLF doesn't turn things around next year, he risks maxing out at age 19. On the other hand, Linford Christie didn't hit his peak until what, 25-27?

Dan
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MiamiD J30
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2003 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yea, but wih Gatlin, he has about 4+ yrs to improve, an then in his prime (25-27 yrs old), he might be able to break the 2 barriers.

And he could change his style to the best possible one for him, and become a power sprinter, and a fluidity sprinter too. He has 4 yrs to do it, so I think he could achieve breaking many of the records.

I believe this is very possible especially for Gatlin.

Jason
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2003 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Might" is the operative word. I predict we'll see sub-9 about the same time we see Gatlin successfully change his style. Neutral

Dan
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MiamiD J30
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2003 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I still think Gatlin can do it, but you don't, so who do you think we'll be the most dominant/best sprinter in the future?

and

Who do you think will break these 2 marks?

and

Tell me why you think he will do it?
(Form, strength, etc.)

Thanks, Dan
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2003 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I already said I see Gatlin as the best of the current up and comers. Doesn't mean he'll be the best 5 years from now, but he's got the best chance (in my opinion) of being there.

Quote:
Who do you think will break these 2 marks?

I don't believe in making predictions along those lines.

Dan
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Conway
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2003 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hmmm ... Not sure how I missed this one ... But I did ... Oh well ....

Best up and comer has to be Darrell Brown right now ... I like Gatlin too ... And Capel is getting better in the 100 and has the worst start ... And speaking of Capel, Bernard Willliams is a year younger and still has a lot of improving to do .. And has demonstrated in the 4x1 that he has plenty of speed to burn ... And there are Marc Burns and MLF who are young and growing and showing some potential ...

Having said all that I would rank the top young sprinters over 100 meters:

Capel
Brown
Gatlin
Williams
MLF
Burns

Course that could change tomorrow - rhetorically speaking ... I think Capel and Williams are the best accelerators of the group ... Brown and Gatlin both using more sustained speed in their races ... If Capel were to run under 9.90 he surely would have a very fast 10 meter split in there somewhere ..

And look for at least four of those young men in next year's 100 final in Athens ...
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2003 10:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I obviously thought enough of Brown to pick him for my Fantasy team, and given his youth and WC win he has to be taken very seriously, but I see him as more of a circumstantial winner than established winner at this point. I might give him the dreaded "most potential" label, but I see Gatlin as a bigger threat.

Odd that Capel is a year older than Williams. In terms of maturity and time on the track scene, it seems the other way around. Rolling Eyes

Dan
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Conway
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2003 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see Brown as less circumstantial than one who has competed very sparingly so far ... And that played to his advantage ... He was 10.10, 10.01, 10.11 and 10.08 in WC competition ... That is not what I would consider circumstantial ... That was a very solid performance .. He ran 10.08 right there in Eugene earlier in the year .. And had 10.17, 10.17, and 10.20 performances last year in his limited season .. As good if not better than most of last year's sprinters ... The kid is legit ...

Gatlin did have an interesting season:

10.32 1.7 4h1 NC Stanford CA 19 Jun
10.32 -1.6 1 Citta Padova 6 Jul
10.09 0.3 1rB GGala Roma 11 Jul
10.15 -2.4 1 DNG Stockholm 5 Aug
10.28 -1.1 3h2 DNG Stockholm 5 Aug
10.03 2.5 2h2 Norw Union London 8 Aug
10.0h 0.9 5 Norw Union London 8 Aug
10.33 -1.6 6rA ISTAF Berlin 10 Aug
9.97 PB 1.3 1=rA WK Zürich 15 Aug
10.17 0.8 4rA Asics Helsinki 18 Aug
10.09 0.8 2 VD Bruxelles 5 Sep
10.12 1.9 5 WAF Monaco 13 Sep
10.05 1 Mosc Chall Moskva 20 Sep

A solid season actually ... And maybe the best of all for the season ... Unfortunately didn't get to run in Paris ..

Both are clearly headed for greatness - barring injury ... I just see Brown - being younger - as having a bit more potential ...
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2003 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No question Brown was solid and ran the best at the right time, but those times would not have been top 3 many years. Great race, but too slow on the clock to make much of potential-wise, in my opinion. Gatlin and Capel were arguably the top two guys this year and didn't get to compete in the 100m in Paris, so fairly average times ended up looking pretty darn good.

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Conway
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2003 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hmmm ... One way to look at it ... This was the slowest final since 1983 when one Carl Lewis won in 10.07 !!! Slow race, yes ... But it was Worlds and he competed better than Tim Mongomery, Bernard Williams, and Dwain Chambers among others ... Tim Montgomery runs fast but has trouble in the big ones ... Darren Campbell runs ok times, but produces when it counts ... Dwain Chambers does great - when the meet is held in England ... Brown just seems to be a competitor - so far winning or medalling at every level ... And you know how I am about competitors ... And if you are at the front the times will come ... Here is this years top 10:

1 Patrick Johnson AUS 9.93
2 Maurice Greene USA 9.94
3 John Capel USA 9.97
3 Justin Gatlin USA 9.97
5 Deji Aliu NGR 9.98
6 Mickey Grimes USA 9.99
6 Kim Collins SKN 9.99
8 Frank Fredericks NAM 10.00
8 Darvis Patton USA 10.00
10 Darrel Brown TRI 10.01

Brown is right there ... As are Gatlin and Capel ... Note that 10.01 was the #10 time on the list in the last Olympic season (2000) and was interestingly enough Tim Montgomery's time ...

Looking at lists take a look at the last pre-Olympic year list (1999):

1 Maurice Greene USA 9.79
2 Bruny Surin CAN 9.84
3 Ato Boldon TRI 9.86
4 Tim Harden USA 9.92
5 Frank Fredericks NAM 9.94
6 Obadele Thompson BAR 9.96
7 Dwain Chambers GBR 9.97
8 Leonard Myles Mills GHA 9.98
8 Jason Gardner GBR 9.98
10 Eric Nkansah GHA 10.00

Take away the top 3 (who were a class apart, Mo and Ato owning the all time lists) and it looks remarkably like this year's !!!!
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Dan
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2003 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
he competed better than Tim Mongomery, Bernard Williams, and Dwain Chambers among others ... Tim Montgomery runs fast but has trouble in the big ones ... Darren Campbell runs ok times, but produces when it counts ... Dwain Chambers does great - when the meet is held in England ...

That pretty much sums up my point. Wink He competed well against a bunch of guys not known for being great competitors. That makes him an unknown still. He may well be able to rise to the next level when there's someone in the next lane really pushing him, but it's yet to be proven. My gut feeling is that Gatlin is already there if not for the injury.

Quote:
Take away the top 3 ... and it looks remarkably like this year's !!!!

Similar, but 4-10 looks a fair bit stronger for '99 than this year's 1-10. Pretty even distribution from 9.92 to 10.00 for that year. This year was all bunched up from 9.97 to 10.01 (has there ever been a tighter top 10?), with the top 2 still falling short of 99's #4. Mediocre is the only word that comes to mind.

Dan
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