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World Championship Predictions for the Sprints
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X King
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 10, 2003 10:01 am    Post subject: World Championship Predictions for the Sprints Reply with quote

What are your's for each sprint event???
I'm going to be brave and post my predictions for the Worlds in Paris which take place later on this month.

MEN

100m:
1. Maurice Greene(USA)
2. Dwain Chambers(GBR)
3. Ato Boldon(TRI)

Reason: History says that Greene is going to win, and I'm a massive Greene fan, so he's my pick. Dwain has been running well as of late, he looks good,and is a major championship athlete.
On Ato's site he says that he is running sub-10 in practice for the first time in 4 yrs!!! And word has it that he ran storming bend for the TRI team in the 4x100m(they won Bronze in a NR equalling 38.53s), and he is a great athlete and performs quite well at major championships. So I can't count him out can I??? Or is it the fact that I feel sorry for him due to all the problems he has had since 2001???

200m:
1. Kostantinos Kenderis(GRE)
2. John Capel(USA)
3. Christian Malcolm(GBR)

Reason: Kenderis has won every major championship(bar Commonwealth Games) at the Men's 200m since 2000 in Sydney when he surprised everyone!!! So he's my pick.
Capel is determined to get a medal in this event(his comments after Sydney prove it!), so he's up there.
Christian is British boy, he looked set to win a medal in Edmonton, but he faltered to step up to the plate. After that photo-finish which is still giving people headaches now!!! Chrsitian has been running good as of late(see reason for Dwain in the 100m) And 20.25s in Crystal Palace was a good win over a domestic field. He will run a good,steady bend as usual, and will then get cuaght up in the slipstream of Kenderis and Capel and get dragged home in 3rd( Just as Dwain did in Sevilla 1999.Bruny and Dwain had the best starts of their lives. Greene came back to Bruny, he passed him, and Dwain got caught up in the slipstream.
Dwain also got cuaght up last year in the Grand Prix Final behind Montgomery, he had a good start ran great for 40-50m, and just ran through the line, in Montgo's slipstream. I see the same for Malcolm in the 200m) And the fact that he is British he will win a medal.
The comment above has to be the most bias comment I've ever typed!

400m:
1. Tyree Washington(USA)
2. Jerome Young(USA)
3. Marc Raquil(FRA)

Reason: Tyree has been the favoruite since the US Championships where he won convincinly in 44.33s(WL), and the only person at the moment who is going to beat him is himself.He should win with ease in a WL time.
Jerome has been running well, and experience should carry him to a medal. I believe that Raquil will time his finish right at the Worlds. He will be in front of a home crowd.So the adreneline will be pumping and he come home strongly(as always!) from bout 4 or 5th place to 3rd place.

4x100m:
1.USA
2.GBR
3.TRI

Reason: USA should break the WR, with a strong start from Drummond,a great backstretch as always from Bernard Williams, a good bend from either Tim Montgo or Dravis Patton(depending on who get's the nod for 3rd leg) and a great anchor for MO(who else?)
GBR will always be chasing the USA, which will lead them to a new European Record( Anyone remeber Sevilla '99?)
TRI will win the Bronze,as they did in Edmonton. A team which consists of Burns,Boldon,Brown and ??? I see Boldon storming round the second bend, giving the baton to Brown,who seals their grip on the Bronze medal within this event.


4x400m:
1. USA
2. JAM
3. GBR

Reason:The USA always puts out a strong team, if not all the time the strongest team. And with Derrick Brew and Tyree Washington amongst others the team should put together some strong,fast split times for every leg so they should win. JAM have some strong runners and if they put Usain Bolt on the team, the team should be strong. The GBR team are missing Matt Elias(Matt ran a great 44.1s on anhcor leg for the Welsh team at last year's Commonwealth Games) but Dainel Caines,D'uaine Ladejo and Chris Rawlinson(if he's fit for the relay) the team is very strong and should get a medal...if all are at their best.

Hey guys,what are your predictions, If your brave enough?!?
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Last edited by X King on Tue Aug 12, 2003 11:02 am; edited 1 time in total
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Justin
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 10, 2003 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can't help but bite at this. I'll stick to men's 100m since that's my thing:

1. Chambers
2. Collins
3. Greene
4. Aliu
5. Williams
Others: Johnson, Fredericks, Montgomery, Zakari, Macrozanaris, Brown, Suetsugu, Campbell, Drummond, MLF

C & C have simply looked the class of the event in recent weeks. Greene is a major contender and as likely to finish 1st as 8th, we just don't know what form he's in.

Williams is class but he has a weakness - he cracks under pressure. In London, while Chambers and Collins waited patiently, Williams was snapping at the officials. He also hasn't gone faster than 10.05 legal this year, although we know he can. Aliu is untested under this amount of pressure and he too has shown frailty, false-starting in his case.

I don't think Montgomery will run, and if he does he won't be a gold threat. Drummond has shown terrible form since his NC and backing him would be an act of faith. Patrick Johnson was never going to be able to hold 9.93 form for 3-4 months. Fredericks I don't think can run rounds. No idea what to expect from Macrozanaris or Suetsugu. Brown is probably not quite there yet. Campbell is a good bet for the final, as is Zakari, and MLF if he regains early season form.

Want more? Ronald Pognon, Asafa Powell, Emedolu, Nkansah, Pierre Browne, the Greeks. All at 10.1x and known performers.

Missed anyone? Well, Boldon talks a lot, but runs badly. I'd love to see him back but have seen nothing to suggest it's going to happen. I think you're feeling sorry for him, X-King!

Discuss!

Justin
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Dan
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 10, 2003 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justin, I think your analysis is spot on. Only nagging question I have is at the top of the medal stand. It seems like the top contenders at this point are all guys who run great 2nd place races but aren't really big meet winners, if you know what I mean. Makes it tough to get a good feel for who's likely to rise from the pack. I'm leaning a bit more toward Collins at this point.

Dan
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Justin
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 10, 2003 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, as Greene has won every global champs since 1997, no-one can claim to be a 'true' champs winner. Closest are Chambers (big EC win last year) and Collins (big CG win last year). You could reverse the order of my 1-2 prediction and I couldn't really complain.

More to the point we know that these two run well under pressure. Watch their form in the London race - rock solid all the way to the line under extreme pressure from the occasion, the competitors and the circumstances. Aliu and Williams started to rock 'n' roll 10m out.

And but for the timing farce I am sure they would have been given 9.91-9.95 times in London.

BTW Gatlin has superb form too. Interestingly in the races I've seen him run his start has been wanting, odd for a 60m WC.

Justin
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Dan
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 10, 2003 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Well, as Greene has won every global champs since 1997, no-one can claim to be a 'true' champs winner.

Good point.

Quote:
BTW Gatlin has superb form too. Interestingly in the races I've seen him run his start has been wanting, odd for a 60m WC.

I think that was somewhat of an outlier performance for him, being more of a long sprinter who was seemingly focusing on the shorter stuff at that time and hit his peak pretty much perfectly with a better than average start for him. Sort of like how everything came together just right for Tim's 9.78 last year.

Dan
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Kishan Gill
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 11, 2003 11:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. chambers
2. collins
3.williams

200m.kenteris 100mw.sturrup 110mh.johnson 400m.washington

Nuff said!!
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Dan
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 11, 2003 12:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sturrup over White? I'd give that one 50/50 odds at best, probably more like 70/30 in favor of White. So no, not quite 'nuff said. Wink

Dan
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Conway
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 11, 2003 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

After the BERlin relay gotta go with:

1. Mo
2. Bernard
3. Kim
4. Dwain g


Mo at 9.0 easing off and Bernard at 8.8 are both at the level necessary for something big ... With Mo's experience that is bad news for everyone else ... MO and BErnard have performed at this level whereas Dwain and Kim have not as yet ...

Everyone else is out of the picture .... Luck on the day could bring someone else to the stand but these are my favorites at the moment ...

As for Gatlin, he is simply a winner ... Slow starter like he and Stee Williams, James Sanford and others just win ... They put together 60's just fast enough to win ... What ever that takes ..
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Justin
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2003 1:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Conway

Your faith in Mo and Bernard is touching, but should perhaps, I humbly suggest, be surrounded by the same "warning, nationally biased comment" note I added to a recent post of mine! (I say this with complete good-humour of course, this is all just fun).

From what I hear of Berlin, JJ Johnson was catching Mo hand over fist down the homestretch. I have seen nothing from Greene to justify a prediction that he will win, this has to be based on his record 1997-2001. Perhaps this will turn out to be justified - I certainly wouldn't bet against it - but on 2003 form this is an act of faith.

Where I do disagree is where you say "... Bernard [has] performed at this level whereas Kim and Dwain haven't". This is incorrect :

- Williams has run in one major champs (WC in 2001) where he got a bronze, and one minor champs (PAG in 1999), which he won

- Chambers has run in three major champs (WC 99, OG 00, WC 01) and four minor ones (EC/CG 98 & 02), plus 2 World Cups, a couple of indoor champs and several champs as a junior. Chambers is much more experienced at this level than Williams; they each have one global bronze and one regional title but Chambers has run in so many more big meets.

- Collins has run in 2 OG, 2 WC, 1 CG, 3 CAC and 1 WP, plus 2 WIC and 2 CG. Again, far more experienced at all championship levels than Williams.

Williams was found seriously wanting in by far the best 100m race of the year (London), both physically and mentally. He is very easily distracted, whereas both Collins and Chambers are unfazeable. In the latter stages Collins, Chambers and Aliu were moving away from him while Gatlin was noticeably gaining on him.

None of which of course means Williams can't/won't win. He is one of 4 or 5 favourites. But not because of his proven record at this level.

Best wishes,

Justin
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Conway
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2003 7:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ACtually I am basing things on this season ... IN Berlin both Mo and Bernard ran monster relay legs ... 9.07 and 8.83 respecitvely ... This denotes that both are in outstanding condition ....

That and Mo's experience and his already running sub 10 this season make him the favorite in my opinion ...

As for Bernard His successses in various US championship situations and Collegiate situations count as much as Euros and Commonwealths as far as I am caoncerned as the competition is actually more difficult in Bernards case ... Much more dpth of field ...

Dwain has run in many big ones ... And come up way short just as many times ... His prepration has yet to be on a level of champion in bigi ones ... And so far his metaphysical make up continues to have him break down when it counts ... So we will see ...

Collins shows potential but has yet to put it together aside from Commonwealth - where the main contenders including Chambers broke down ...

Paris will tell the story ...
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Justin
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2003 8:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This debate has become pointless depressingly quickly. How sad.

I sometimes (actually, regularly) wonder why I bother with this forum when the standard of debate is so depressingly low. US Collegiate events the equal of Europeans and CG? Jeez...and then you guys wonder why the rest of the world thinks Americans are arrogant.

Bye.

Justin
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Dan
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2003 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I also stumbled on Conway's wording at first, but I think you missed what he meant:

Quote:
in various US championship situations and Collegiate

That would presumably include post-collegiate competition?

Dan
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X King
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2003 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok no reasons for my predictions on medal placings, it only wastes valuable time and valuable space.

WOMEN

100m:
1. Kelli White(USA)
2. Chandra Sturrup(BAH)
3. Chrstye Gaines(USA)

200m:
1. Kelli White(USA)
2. Muriel Hurtis(FRA)
3. Allyson Feilx(USA)

400m:
1. Ana Guevera(MEX)
2. Lorraine Fenton(JAM)
3. Amy Thiam(SEN)

4x100m:
1. USA
2. FRA
3. GER

4x400m:
1. USA
2. JAM
3. RUS
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2003 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't help but think Allyson Felix is running out of gas. She tore it up in the rounds at PanAm's but apparently faltered in the final. This is becoming a heck of a long season for her, and a few more rounds at the highest of levels will be a major test of her stamina. I would pick Torri Edwards ahead of her at this point, and probably a Bahamas runner or two.

Anyone picking Usain Bolt to medal in the 200? I got to see him run (on TV) in the Youth Champs last month, and boy did he look impressive. Surprised

Dan
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Conway
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2003 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dan wrote:
I also stumbled on Conway's wording at first, but I think you missed what he meant:

Quote:
in various US championship situations and Collegiate

That would presumably include post-collegiate competition?

Dan


Yes it does include post collegiate competition ... And has nothing to do with American arrogance ... The best "foreign" sprinters in the world come here to train and compete making the major collegiate meets a great training ground for sprinters ...

And sorry Justin but who is there on the European level whenit comes to sprinting other than the British ??? In the 100 meters no one ... Top 100 athletes are from the US, CArribean, and Africa ... has nothing to do with the US per se ... Just little 100 talent outside those 3 primary areas ... Sorry if that is depressing ... But I didn't create the situation ...

Noro did I create the longstanding sprint tradition that exists here .. Makes for a caldron of competition that is unmatched else where .. When you are a top dog here you can usually win anywhere else ... Part of that is nationalism on my speaking the other part is history .. Has taken soem extraordinary men to knock US sprinters off the top ranks of the podium ... Most specifically Linford Christie, Donovan Bailey, Ben Johnson, Valeri Borzov and Haseley Crawford in the past 30 years !!! And only one of those European ..

Yes Dwain is making noise, but like Tim (who IS American) both are yet unproven when it comes to the top rung of the ladder .. When either assends I will bow ... But I call my view point just as you call yours and the athletes have it out on the track to show us which is/was correct ... Shouldn't be a reason for anger ..
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Last edited by Conway on Tue Aug 12, 2003 11:26 am; edited 1 time in total
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