Run-Down Forums

[Justin]

Hi All

I don't think that running 400m is intended to help Borzokivskiy's sprint finish - this is misses the point of his race. Unlike everyone else, he runs absolutely even pace. He's going the same speed down the last 100m as he was at the same point the previous lap. His 1:42.3 comprised laps of 51.2 and 51.1 (give or take a tenth). A mid-race burst would disrupt this pattern. When he runs 1:41 it will be with two laps of 50.5, not with a 49 and a 52.

This was always what Seb Coe aspired to, and came closest to before Borz. He also worked on his 400m (he was a sub 47 runner with a 45.x relay leg), but to improve his speed endurance, not his sprint finish. I am sure that there is a formula for % of max 400m speed that a runner can maintain for two laps. Obviously the lower the 400m time, the faster your 800m time will be if you plan to run even paced races. A 1500m runner moving down would not have the basic leg speed to compete and ironically might be better off slowing the race down and relying on a sprint finish.

Justin

[ This Message was edited by: Justin on 2002-02-18 16:35 ]

[Justin]

Hi All

Birmingham had some interesting races.

Morne Nagel looked very good in the 60m, but Jason Gardener was handicapped by an amazing false start mistake - he was debited a false start despite being about the 5th man to leave his blocks. Clearly some mistake and it showed as he got a poor start in the race. He was closing on Nagel at the end, as was Lewis-Francis, who should break 6.50 if he ever puts a start and a finish into the same race.

Shawn Crawford was even more impressive - 20.30 looked very smooth and strong. Christian Malcolm was also pleased - 20.58. Colin Jackson showed there's life in those old legs yet with a 6.44 60mH win.

Dragila never looked right - she failed twice at 4.04m. Janine Whitlock added 11cm to her UK record with her 4.44m - she was delighted. Graf looked very strong; Chioma Ajunwa very sharp.

Justin

[Conway]

Justin .. Where have you been ... You beat me to the Borzokovsky rebuttal .. As you said he is not a kicker but an even paced runner .. And increasing his speed increases his pace ..

Crawford looks like a different sprinter this year .. Serious .. More determined .. He could be a new force ..
Not sure how the 800 has stayed categorized as a middle distance event .. It is much more a long sprint than a distance race ..

I've been impressed with Nagel's marks all season .. would like to see how his race looks .. Lewis Francis is runing faster than last year at this time .. Does he look like a potential sub 10 (with some regularity) this year ??

Colin is a good technical hurdler and always has been ... That type of hurdler runs well longer than others tend to .. Would like to see he and Johnson and Garcia go at it with all three healthy this year .. With no championship meet they could push each other to something great ..

[Dan]

Justin,

Welcome back!

You guys make some good points about 400/800 speed, but I think you may be placing too much meaning into general words. Sure, Borzo is technically running even pace, but given that most everyone else is slowing down, that is what is referred to as kicking or late race speed. While his pace may remain even, his effort most certainly is not. The effort he's exherting down the last 100 or 200 meters probably places him down around 45 seconds for a single lap, not the 51 he's running at that point.

So, as strange as it may sound, I see kicking and even paced running (800 and under) as being pretty much the same thing. The exact same argument can be made for MJ in the 400.

The Brits jumped out at me as looking very good in the indoor sprints. Justin, were you at the meet? If I'm not mistaken, don't the British sprinters (men) have somewhat of a history of blazing in the indoor season and falling off somewhat outdoor? I'm thinking about Jamie Baulch specifically, but I seem to recall several others (John Regis in his day?).

If Nagel keeps this up, we may have to start learning more about him...

Dan

[Conway]

Hmm .. I understand what you are saying about effort .. But is it any different than the 400 sprinter what runs 22.0/22.2 as opposed to 21.0/23.2 ??? In either case 400 or 800 the more even "paced" race is probably easier for the athlete to run as the faster first "half" of the race is likely to take more out of the non-kicking athlete ...

I also see Borzo's move to the 400 as one of "saving" himself for the 3 year run of Worlds/Olympics/Worlds coming up in 03/04/05 !! His coach seemed rather intent on not running him in last year's event in order to save him for something .. I am gathering that it is a run at the trifecta ...

On a couple of other notes that Justin mentioned .. Dragila did not look good in the last meet I saw her in ... Will be interesting to see how long it takes her to get it together nad how far along Feofanova has gotten by then ... While it is still quite early I would definitely say that the psychological advantage has been changed .. Ajunwa's times seem to tell the story of a redefined athlete .. Is about time for an African woman to join the sprint wars and be a force ... Personally I am hoping to see a much more competitive sprint scene on the women's side this year ..

As for British sprinters I don't think they have flashed early so much as they have had a ceiling on performance which they seem to reach early in the season and not be able to progress past ... The one notable exception being Christie .. Although Regis did have the one season in 93 when he performed well at the Worlds .. Balch is a whole different story to me ... Just has that wide open style that burns out rather quickly - like during the indoor season ...

[ This Message was edited by: Conway on 2002-02-19 14:14 ]

[Justin]

Hi All

On the 800m, Dan is right to say that "sprint finish" is a generic term to refer to all-out effort in the last 100m. So Borz will improve his finish (alongside every other part of his race) through 400m running.

However, it's worth distinguishing Borz's even pace from, for example, Bucher's 50.0/53.0 style or true change-of-pace sprinters like Wottle or Seb Coe. Borz does not have a true sprint, nor the strength of Bucher, but is doing something more difficult.

I wasn't at the Birmingham meet, it was on TV. On UK sprinters, Gardener broke through to 9.98 after his 6.46 indoor season a few years ago and has suffered injuries ever since - the UK team has always suffered appalling injury problems, a reflection of the cold climate and poor facilities.

Gardener, Chambers and MLF are all going to be well under 10.00 this summer assuming they stay fit. MLF looks better every time I see him run.

Baulch is better indoors than out, a function of his build and style, but still ran 44.6 the year of his world indoor 400m gold. Likewise Regis, a good outdoor runner (19.94/19.87A) but an excellent indoor one (20.5, wld indoor title).

Justin

[Conway]

For what its worth I think Borz is the most exciting 800 runner to come along since Kipketer a few years back ... And by exciting I mean the kind of guy that you expect outstanding times from .. Not to take anything away from Bucher becasue he does nothting but win .. But I see Borz challenging Kipeketer's times ... And I think that is the whole purpose of putting him in the 400 this year ..

Interesting that you mention the injuries of the Brits as Christie was fairly injury free .. Had his minor injuries but was always able to toe the line when the big one's came up ... I thought that Gardener was actually going to be the heir apparent .. Is he finally ready to run ?? MLF certainly seems to have all the tools however .. And in spite of the mechanical problems at last year's Worlds most certainly ran 9.97 .. Of the current crop of British sprinters would you put any in the ready for sub 9.90 category ???

also is Thomas ready to get back to the 40 wars at his previously stellar rate ?? And ... Is Britain going to get any one under 20.00 again ?? MLF doesn't seem to run there .. He would be the logical one to me .. Why doesn't he run the 200 ??

[Justin]

So many questions!

Here goes -

On the 100m runners, I think Chambers, Gardener and Lewis-Francis will all be under 10.00 this year.

Chambers was consistent at 10.0x last year, the platform he needs to jump to low 9.9s - I predict 9.91 for him this year. He is tremendously powerful and is ahead of the others at the moment.

Gardener could not be more different - smaller, smoother, faster leg speed. But I think he lacks the power to match Chambers at his best. When Gardener ran 6.46 a few years ago he ran 9.98 outdoors. I see him running under 10.00 again this year, but perhaps not regularly. He's also very injury-prone.

Lewis-Francis has the best of them both - Chambers' power and Gardener's smoothness and leg speed. He is an awesome talent, please believe me. I've been watching 100m running for 20 years and have not seen a better teenager. He is also mature and mentally strong - missing the OG showed iron nerve and commitment to steady progress.

On the 200m, Christian Malcolm is the man and he is definitely sub-20 potential. If there is a more smooth and elegant runner around then I've not seen them. Malcolm glides but also has deceptive leg speed. He's a joy to watch. He was WJ champ at 100, (10.12) but I think he lacks the power for 100m and may stay stuck just under 10.10.

Chambers toyed with 200m last year and could easily run 20.1x or even 20.0x. But he doesn't want to. He is a dedicated 100m man and since 100m is the marquee event, why bother with 200m? Same for Gardener - anyone who can run 10.00 can run 20.1x, but why? Never seen Lewis-Francis run 200m. Malcolm will be kept honest by Marlon Devonish (20.1x potential) and perhaps youngster Tim Benjamin, but is the UK #1 at the event.

Iwan Thomas, I predict, will never return to his 44.3 form. He has had years of injuries and looked a shodow of his former self last year. Still, he's a determined man so if he's had a good winter, perhaps he can be a threat again.

Just my views of course.

Justin

[Conway]

Chambers has definitely moved up the last few years, but I still like Gardener - much more fluid .. Prior to Lewis Francis emerging I had Gardener pegged as the one to take over from Linford .. And still feel he has 9.90 potential .. Maybe Britains version of Montgomery ..

any reason you know of for Lewis Francis not running the 200 ?? Seems that he would be a natural at it .. And frankly I htink the 200 may be Britains best sprint event at this time .. Malcolm is a nice runner .. Nice style .. Just wonder about his strength ..

Wiht Britains sprintforces back on the rise what/who do you see as their 4x1 ?? May no be many opportunitites this year but the next three years will offer several relay championships .. and I would view the British as the US's main competition ... Gardener, Chambers, Malcolm, Lewis-Francis - in that ordre ???

[Dan]

[Conway]

Well I am ready to consider Nagel as the real deal since he ran 20.50 indoors today ... That would give an indication of strength to go with the initial speed .. And I do think that the 100 will be a hot event this year as there will not be one single race to shoot for and it is always a high profile event on the European circuit ..

Large sprinters have historically done well in the 200 .. Probably moreso than in the 100 .. 200 allows you to compensate for poor starts, but you don't have to carry it for a full 400 .. Gus like Clancy Edwards, GReg Foster, Kirk BAptiste, were all larger built sprinters than MLF who did quite well at the distance .. Not to mention Britain's own Linford Christie and John Regis .. Heck, take a look at last years leader on the clock !! JJ is not a little guy .. I think Lewis Francis could do just fine if he ran the 200 .. Especially given his ability to relax and run smoothly ..

[Dan]

Are you talking about large in terms of height or bulk? I consider JJ to be a rather slender guy, just quite tall. MLK, on the other hand, seems rather wide (like Maurice, but more so). Granted, Maurice can power around the turn when he's on, but it seems like some races he's unable to control his momentum on the turns.

Dan

[Justin]

Why would anyone choose to run 200m over the 100m? The short sprint is where the glory is, where the people to beat are. 100m is consistently a better event at GP meets than 200m, even when 200m is the GP event. These young Brit sprinters don't want gold in a weaker event, they want to beat Mo Greene.

Remember - the prime motivation for any UK (or non-US) sprinter is to beat the Americans. That was what drove Christie, and Wells. Gardener, Chambers and Lewis-Francis will be following Greene, Montgomery and co all around Europe's 100m straights next year, not taking victory in poor quality 200m races because there's a gap there.

Justin

[Conway]

Good point Justin .. I was looking at the ability to become the star of an event - not at trying to beat the Americans .. Although I didn't see anyone (non American) other than Frankie Fredericks out trying to beat Michael Johnson at 200 - even though he was no where near the same 200 sprinter after 96 !!!

I would assume then that the chase involves the mythical title of "World's Fastest Human" !! As that is what drove not only the Brits but the Canadians during their assent to elite sprinting (although having reveiwed the '95 and '96 seasons I have a different perspective on Bailey, or at least strengthened the one I already had) ..

Question - how do you view the 200 as an event ?? Obviously the 100 is the marquee event, but then where do the 200 and for that matter the 400 fall in the grand scheme of things ??

[Justin]

Well, on raw potential I'd say that anyone who can run at or near 10.00 should be able to hold on and clock 20.0x or 20.1x for 200m. Even Andre Cason (the ultimate get-to-60m-first-and-hold-on 100m runner) clocked 20.10w.

With that in mind Chambers et al could be competitive. Chambers surprised himself with a 20.3x run last year but he hated it - he was exhausted!

As an event I think the 200m has a problem. The best 200m runners in the world are largely the best 100m runners and they prefer the shorter event. Standards have been dropping for several years at a time when the 100m has never been stronger.

Michael Johnson had a lot to do with it, as with the poor standard of 400m running at the moment. He was so dominant, so unbeatable that 100m must have seemed like a refuge. 19.32 is a WR which humiliates most of the likely 200m competitors. Run 19.8? Great. Just half a second away from the WR. Run 9.9 on the other hand and Mo Greene is still in touching distance. Both 200m and 400m will improve when someone comes along who does not have an image of Johnson's back imprinted on his consciousness - someone like Justin Gatlin for example.

Justin

[ This Message was edited by: Justin on 2002-02-26 13:07 ]