Run-Down Forums

Conway · Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2001 7:58 am Post subject:

While we are wrapping up the season in one topic, thopught we could begin looking forward to next season .. But since thereseems to be a renewal of nationalism lately, thought we could just focus on the US .. Indoor, outdoor, cross country, marathoning, ultra .. Whatever .. What does the US look like for 2002 .. Will we see improvement in any areas ?? Are we heading down anywhere ..

Can we regain the top spot in the 200 & 400 ?? Will any 800 runners step forward this year ?? What of Kennedy and Goucher and our distance runners ?? Where do we see the US in 2002 ???

Dan · Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2001 9:34 am Post subject:

I think we'll see somewhat of a resurgence in the men's 200 and 400. If nothing else, only because the events are so weak right now that it's almost harder to place 8th than 1st... If JJ Johnson turns out to be for real, John Capel successfully comes back, the Harrisons return from their semi-annual hiatus from the sport, and Tyree Washington stays healthy, then we're suddenly back to challenging for a medal sweep in each event.

I don't see anything on the horizon to indicate improvements in the 800. Seems the current crew would rather talk about racing smart than getting out and running fast. 1:50 is winning too many college meets these days, so I don't see where the next generation of 1:43's is going to come from...

I suspect Kennedy is nearing the end of his run, no pun intended. Goucher may be ready to run low 13:0x, which may actually be significant with the 12:59's that are winning races currently. He may even have a good enough kick to be a factor in tactical races, although Kennedy taught him some lessons in surging last year.

On the women's side, I'm not sure how much longer Regina and Suzy will be considered contendors. That will quickly weaken the not overly strong distance side of things, which would then be held together by pretty much only Deena Drossin. I think the women will be a lot stronger in the sprints next year with the likes of Inger Miller, Angela Williams, Kelli White, and a hopefully rejuvenated Marion Jones.

For all those of you who hoped we'd see a WR from Khannouchi in a USA uniform, I fear we've already seen the best of him. Seems he had a one year peak that was the culmination of about 5 years of road running at a high level.

Dan

Conway · Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2001 9:42 am Post subject:

I agree with the thought that we will be dominant again in the long sprints .. At least on the men's side .. I wonder about the women's .. I see no improvement there from anyone .. Including Marion .. And I fear that Pintusevich may have fueled the fire of others around the world and created teh belief that the Americans can be beaten !!! Is what broke the Eastern BLock hold in 1979 (Evelyn finally getting victory) .. Then the "wall" came tumbling down .. May be hapeneing in reverse for the American Women .. And I fear I see no 400 runners among our women ready to step it up in the manner that say Kathereine MErry has done for Britain ..

I too fear that Regina and Suzy have seen their best days .. And I am not sure who is ready to ake over and provide at least the threat of medalling ..

Kennedy may be past his prime (I agree that Kannouchi has) .. Goucher is somewhat intreaging ... Who are the young guns of the distance set ???

Dan · Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2001 12:31 pm Post subject:

You may be right that Marion and the US sprinters will not be viewed as untouchable now, but I actually think that will be a good thing for American sprinters. I would rather see them lose an occasional race in a fast time than win lots of so-so races. I think the challenge will force them to rise to a new level, much like HSI did as soon as the Canadian challenge (Bailey and the rest of the 4x1 squad) became significant enough to steal headlines. Too much pride at stake.

Dan

Micah Ward · Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2001 6:58 pm Post subject:

For the distance events I think Goucher and Tim Broe will carry the torch for the next several years until Webb and Ritzenhiem (sp?)take it over. Also look for Meb Keflezighi to shine.

The ladies could be very weak for several years as Jacobs and Favor fade away. The exception could be Melina Glusac.

In my favorite area, the ultras, we will have the opportunity to watch a true legend pass the torch. As great as Ann Trason is, Father Time can not be ignored. Trason has turned 40 and will still be a favorite every time she enters a race, but it is just a matter of a very short time until Deb Mattheus beats her. Trason will still probably win the trail 100's but she is not dominating the way she used to. If she goes to a shorter distance on a course that rewards speed Mattheus will be ready to take her.

Ward's Worthless Opinions...seen here first!

Conway · Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2001 8:55 pm Post subject:

How good do you all think Broe and Goucher can be ?? If this season was anyndication I think that 13:00 will be the approximate standard in international competition .. I don't expect to see a lot of sub 13 races .. IF they can get down under 13:10 they may have a shot .. Is that a realistic expectation of them ??

As far as women's sprints I think that Pintusevich may be the BAiley for the women .. She seems more fearless than the others .. I think Arron is the most talented and the most brash but I think she has a fear factor .. What do you think ??

And I am dying to talk about what should have been the best event on the track for 2 years now .. The 200 meters !!

Dan · Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2001 10:21 pm Post subject:

Trason is 40? Wow, didn't seem like she'd been around that long...

I'm not quite ready to put Tim Broe in the category of potential savior of the American distance scene. If he can improve on this past season for another year or two, then quite possibly. Until then, he's still just another face in the crowd, albeit one that is gaining strength. Don't overlook Cullpepper, he's shown the ability to actually *race* on occasion, as has Abdi. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Tegenkamp turns out to be better than Ritzenheim. For all the hype about Ritz, Tegenkamp is only a year older and looks to be at a nearly identical level. I also have more confidence in his choice of schools to get him through the next 4 years healthy...

Goucher will be back to full strength, I'm sure. If it were an even paced 13-flat race, then I think Goucher could become a medal contendor. However, championship races never unfold that way, and that seems to be Adam's achilles heel.

I wouldn't pin a country's hopes on the slender shoulders of Glusac. One only need look at a picture of her (even better, some time lapse photos of her over the past 5-7 years) to see why. Here today, gone tomorrow...

Arron is an interesting study. She always seems to have a chip on her shoulder, talking about how Marion is beatable and how everyone wants to see her (Marion) defeated. Most of the quotes are written or attributed to her by someone else doing the talking, so it's hard to get a feel for whether she is confident/arrogant or hiding behind strong words.

Didn't she really only have 2 seasons at a high level? Are we maybe expecting too much of her?

Let's wait till next year to talk about the 200. I should have some good things to say by then. Wink

Dan

Conway · Posted: Sun Oct 07, 2001 11:20 pm Post subject:

Too late for me to comment on distance stuff .. Will do that tomorrow .. But will comment on Arron ..

I think she is a true talent .. Maybe the best talent out there .. Has anatural finish that is the best in the business .. But I too wonder about her heart .. Is good enough to beat Martion and has the talent to do so .. She is with HSI which I figured would get her gold last year but she was injured all season .. She has had a few good seasons .. And it the Euro record holder.. AT 10.73 .. Closes best in the short relay . Has all the tools .. Just seems like something is missing ..

And what is wrong with the 200 ??? Smile

Micah Ward · Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2001 7:34 am Post subject:

On June 9 Broe ran 17:46 at the Steamboat Classic 4 mile. That put him in 3rd and just 1 second behind winner Shadrack Hoff. I'm pretty encouraged by that. Ritzenhiem took second at Colorado's first meet with an identical time to the winner Jorge Torres. Of course Tegenkamp is in the same class with Ritz and Webb, I just wasn't thinking when I left his name out.

Glusac is scheduled to run the New York marathon on Nov 4. Let's see what happens there. If Glusac isn't a candidate for the future then who is? Our future may still be in college and several years away. Sylvia Mosqueda is over 30 I believe. Libbie Hickman is over 30 and pregnant so we won't see much of her for a while. Most of the others have failed to establish any kind of consistency.

Dan · Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2001 8:04 am Post subject:

No question Broe is among the best distance runners in the country (ran great in XC) and has steadily moved up since his college days, but I would caution against trying to extrapolate a road race performance to apply to track success (assuming that's what we're talking about), because it rarely correlates. Ritz running even with Torres is a good sign.

Conway · Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2001 9:45 am Post subject:

Interesting about the roads and the success of American distance runners .. Other athletes sweem to transfer road and track success back and forth .. For Americans it seems to be one or the other .. Anyone have a thought for why that is ??

I like Broe and Goucher and a couple of others .. But i am looking for a Padilla type .. hate to use Maree becasue he was imported .. OR a Marsh type (Henry not Mike)... Somewhat that is not only good on the clock but competitive on the track .. I'm starting to think that waht we need is a former sprinter or sprint coach to begin coaching our distance runners .. Give them more of a "racing" mentality ..

As for the 200, I think the IAAF has all but killed it .. The system of assigning "value" to event .. And then giving them priority based on that .. And then paying for some vs others has done in the 200 ... When you have 3 sprints .. And Mo Greene and MJ dominating them asthey have for the past 5 years .. Somethign gets left out of the promotion / money cycle .. And the 20 has been it .. Guys who would be better off in the 200 keep running the 100 hoping to make some money .. And of course MJ and MO made their living off of other events .. A guy like Capel figured he was better off trying football to make ihs living .. So so much for the potential stars of the event .. Injuries have decimated the next row of contenders (Fredericks and Boldon) .. After that .. NOt sure what to say .. A bunch of very good sprinters .. But not the sub 20 guys .. But I expect that to change this next season Wink

Micah Ward · Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2001 2:37 pm Post subject:

Why Americans can't seem to succeed on the roads and the track is a good question. It is interesting to note that Gebrailesse (sp) won the World Half Marathon champs. He's doing it! The encouraging thing about Broe's performance at Steamboat Springs is that he was in a pack of African runners and still was 1 second from a win. Now that is a good showing on the road so we wait and see if he can take it to the track. It is also interesting to note that Goucher rarely goes to the roads.

Couple of notes on the young guys running XC. Ryan Hall at Stanford won this past weekend with Gabe finishing 16th. But I'm not sure how serious he is about XC. Tegekamp won his first race. I'm not sure about Webb, I'll have to see if he is runnign XC.

Dan · Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2001 5:19 pm Post subject:

Webb won his first race, also. Ryan Hall is another guy that tends to get overlooked. Thanks for pointing him out.

I don't think there are really that many non-Americans being successful on the track and the roads/XC. Those that do so are pretty much the top two runners in the history of the 10k/5k (Geb and Tergat, and even Geb was only so-so at XC), so it makes sense they could run with the best that "the rest" has to offer.

Who else is there? Khannouchi is a dominant force on the road, but I recall him running a few track races and being nothing special. Tegla Laroupe needs men to pace her on the roads but always ends up 3rd or 4th on the track.

Broe is primarily a steepler. How many of the Kenyan and Morroccan steeple chasers do you see in road races? I would almost go so far as to say that road racing is detrimental to top track performances.

Dan

Micah Ward · Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2001 5:36 pm Post subject:

Can road racing be detrimental to track running? Now that is an interesting question. I wish we had some more distance runners who had done both that could chime in here. Some might argue that the hills on the road build strength that carry over to increased speed on the track but I'm not sure how we could measure that.

What about this idea...if you can run fast, and you have the courage to do so, then you can run fast no matter where you race.

Too simplistic?

Conway · Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2001 6:08 pm Post subject:

Road racing and Cross Country .. Don't seem to be too compatible .. Never thought if one is detrimental to the other .. But they don't seem to mix too well .. But who was good doing both ?? Rogers and Shorter maybe .. Not sure who else .. Viren did well when he hit the road .. Will have to think about it a minute ...

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