Run-Down Forums

[Indeurr]

REPLY TO:
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/asafapowell/message/76

A world--class 400—meter specialist does experience up to 1 second drop-off in time over each 100 meters in a 400—meter race when compared to their 100—meter times (up to 4 seconds total).
Asafa Powell is not a world—class 400—meter specialist. He seems to be nearly purely a short dash runner who knows how to, but because of the physiology, cannot come close to the “US—Triplets” in 200—meter races. Therefore, it seems save to assume that he will experience a drop—off in time greater than 4 seconds. Moreover, the race will happen early in the season – in spite of that speed must be established early in the season, he will be months away from his top speed.
My guess would be that at present or at virtually any time, he can race over 100 meters in a time close to 10 seconds flat (10.00); let me make a wild guess: knowing that everything alive in the universe does follow certain distribution (in case of men, from IQ scores to ability to pole vault), and falls into different “drawers” (with certain exceptions) rather neatly—you could risk saying that he can run 10.20—second 100—meter race at any time, since the dashers from the lower drawer seem to be nearly—incapable of breaking 10.20.
Summing up, 4_x _10.20 seconds + 4 + unknown = 40 + 0.80 + 4 + unknown = 44.80 seconds + unknown;
What would be the unknown?
Let me guess: his 100 m PB is about 9.8 seconds and his 200 m PB is about 19.9 – 0.3 second slower combined time of both 100’s. There is no difference in human PB’s over 100 and 200 meters except for those caused by training and physiology (the world record for 200 meters is faster over each 100 meters than the world record for 100 meters – the fastest man ever has been Michael Johnson). This means that 0.3 seconds must be at the very least added per 200 meters to his time.
44.8 seconds + 0.6 second = 45.4 second
Knowing that he may not be able to run like M.J. (the genius’s approach as I would call it: first 100 m—gain maximum speed by the very end; second 100 m -- free—wheel and slow down as little as possible ‘chilling’; third 100 m – regain the near maximum speed by the middle of the turn; last 100 m start gliding as late as possible and relax your body as well as keep your stride the same right into the rigor mortis.) However, he is too aware and intelligent to run it like a “butthead” (all out first 200 meters and a prayer over the last 200 meters). I do believe that he will run the first 50 meters fast, and that he will start sprinting with 350 meters left – he will try to stay under his maximum speed for the next 50 meters, but feeling that he is getting tired too quickly, and starting to feel anxious, he will blast it out on the back straight; in turn, his bravado will cost him dearly over the last 50 meters off the race. He will end up walking over the finish line.
Final prediction: 46.0 to 47.0 seconds for the first one--lap race.
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http://vincovitanj.tripod.com/Do_not_be_a_victim1/index.htmlhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u43o595CARQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x22Alfgv0DY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgcD2akmeJc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TB0RcWYMwXU
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[Indeurr]

There is a simpler reason for my prediction: Marcin Urbas, a Polish 200--meter specialist, tried to run 400 m when he was running 200 meters in 20.5 to 20.8, he finished in 47.4. Knowing that Mr. Powell is a much better dasher, I have to guess that he will break 47 seconds at worst.
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http://vincovitanj.tripod.com/Do_not_be_a_victim1/index.htmlhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u43o595CARQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x22Alfgv0DY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgcD2akmeJc
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TB0RcWYMwXU
one hand clapping

[Dan]

Interesting. Powell has the length to be an efficient long sprinter, assuming he's done the necessary training to not burn up at 250m.

Dan
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[Angelo Z]

Asafa Powell needs to buy himself another 5 seconds to get close to the 400m world record, either his speed is somewhat inconsistent causing him to lose 1 second for ever 100m, or he is not fit enough to have a greater lactic system like the other 400m specialists do.
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My favorite all time race: Hicham El Guerrouj - Prefontaine Classic Mile 2002 http://youtube.com/watch?v=4YykUTHzOL8
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