Run-Down Forums

[Dan]

http://www.iaaf.org/news/Kind=2/newsId=29306.html

Sounds like near perfect conditions, but regardless, quite the early season performances!

Dan
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[Indeurr]

[Kishan Gill]

That may be the case if last year is anything to go by. Nevertheless stunning performances that will definetely raise eyebrows in the US of A.

Maybe the jamaicans should take several weeks off and skip some of the european circuit to go back and train and be mentally focused for the world champs. Unless the lure of making good money on the circuit is too much to resist, particularly for powell whos 9.84 will make him star billing in europe.

[X King]

Powell's 9.84 is a great performance, as is Bolt's 20.14. They both seem to be in great form, and Powell himself said that he eased up in the final 15 metres and could've run 9.75 or 9.76 without it. I doubt that he eased up that much, as if he did, that would have been a virtual walk over the line. Perhaps he can get down to 9.80 country, but mid-9.7x??? He is a superb athlete, but I just don't think his body is ready for that at the moment.

Bolt's 20.14 is also good, and it seems as if he is back in good form, so it will be good to see him mixing it with the big guys this season.


Merritt's 44.66 in the 1/4 mile is also impressive, and he looks to have carried through his impressive Indoor form. I forgot that he is still a Junior athlete! He has a year left to break Steve Lewis' seemingly untouchable 43.87 WJR, and on this kind of form, it is possible for him to get close to that sort of time.

What is the next big meeting in Track & Field then??? Pre Classic??? Carson Invite???
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[Kishan Gill]

I am not sure the likes of greene and gatlin are taking part in the pre classic but if they are and given the right conditions I am sure they will want to respond with a quick time of their own ( I believe the track is fairly good for sprints) in trying to score in the mind games dept.

I feel powell can get under 9.80 later this year taking all factors into account. If he is not ready now then when?. I think he should avoid overracing and pick his races carefully and as I said earlier take some generous time out before the champs. Right now he is the six million dollar baby.

[Conway]

Powell and 9.84 …

An awesome run at any time of year, let alone the beginning of May … But as the Internet Buzzes with new expectations, what does the time really mean ???

Well let's look at his race … Don't have info on the reaction time, but the wind was 1.8 (at the highest end of the acceptable range) … My assumption is that this is one fast track … Asafa ran 9.91 there last year with a -0.3 wind (actually an intrinsically better race than the 9.84 with near max assist) … Then there is the depth in both men's and women's races this year … Three women under 11.10, and three men under 10.10 …

But this race aside, what do early times mean ??? Let's take a look at fast May races …

1983 - Carl Lewis ran 9.97 on May 5th, his PR and fastest time of the season
1984 - Mel Lattany ran 9.96 on May 5th, his PR and fastest time of the season
1984 - Carl Lewis ran 9.99 on May 6th, his best time of the season
1985 - Carl Lewis ran 9.98 on May 11th, his best time of the season
1989 - Ray Stewart ran 9.97 on May 20th, his PR and fastest time of the season
1993 - Daniel Effiong ran 9.99 on May 21st, his PR and fastest time of the season
1996 - Frank Fredericks ran 9.99 on May25th, season (and lifetime PR) was 9.86
1997 - Ato Boldon ran 9.89 on May 10th, his PR and fastest time of the season
1997 - Donovan Bailey ran 9.99 on May 18th, season best was 9.91
2000 - Maurice Greene ran 9.91 on May, season best was 9.86
2001 - Maurice Greene ran 9.96 on May 12th, season best was 9.82
2002 - Brian Lewis ran 9.99 on May 4th, his PR and fastest time of the season
2002 - Shawn Crawford ran 9.94 on May 11th, his PR and fastest time of the season
2002 - Tim Montgomery ran 9.95 on May 11th, season best was 9.78
2002 - Coby Miller ran 9.98 on May 18th, his PR and fastest time of the season
2003 - Patrick Johnson ran 9.93 on May 5th, his PR and fastest time of the season

And then, of course, we have Asafa in Kingston … So history says that running that fast in May 11 out of 16 times has meant a peak for the season (68.75%) …

How about running that fast at all ??? Well only 4 other sprinters have run as fast as 9.84 … Two, Donovan Bailey and Bruny Surin never ran as fast again … Tim Montgomery ran faster once - his 9.78 … Interestingly enough in both his 9.84 and 9.78 Tim had max (+2.0) aiding winds .. Maurice Green has thrice run under 9.84 …

At 9.85, Leroy Burrell never ran faster, actually never ran under 10 again … Gatlin of course ran 9.85 last year, we will see what his future holds ..

At 9.86, Carl Lewis never ran faster and never ran under 10 again .. Ato Boldon ran 9.86 FOUR times but could never go faster … Fredericks could get no faster after hitting 9.86 … Obikwelu hit this time last year, we will see what his future holds …

9.87 was the stopping point for Linford Christie, Oba Thompson and Dwain Chambers …

To date only 3 men have run under 9.80 … One was busted for drugs … One needed a max aiding wind AND has admitted to using drugs … One has run under once, equaled it once, and was clearly on his way to going under again when the stress of the speed broke his body down (and it took a couple of seasons to get back to normal)

And as shown above, sub 9.90 running clearly breaks down athletes … Most have only been able to get there once … The others get there and almost immediately hit a plateau …

So what does all of this mean ??? It means that running faster for Asafa will be tough … History says the odds are that he won't … But that if he does he will become one of the elite of the elite … But only time will tell … And while there is much enthusiasm, it must be tempered with the reality that this is rarified territory and that improvement from here is minute (if at all) … I say this, not because I don't believe in his ability, but because too often too much is expected of athletes and then when they do not "live up to the expectations" we (as fans) become disappointed …

Asafa himself was a case in point, as his early round "jogging" 9.99 in Athens had everyone buzzing about 9.75s and destroying the WR … Yet he went unmedalled in the final in 9.93 … Carl Lewis once ran 19.75 with his hands in the air and had the world waiting for a WR that never came … Mike Marsh ran his own 19.73 jogging in to the finish line … He never again ran under 19.80 … Sometimes expectation can be the TOUGHEST opponent !!!!

As for Prefontaine, I hear that Asafa himself is supposed to be there !!!
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Conway
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[Dan]

[Kishan Gill]

Conways reasoning is very sound and are backed up by credible statistics.
However powell does have time on his side, he is a young athlete who emerged into the big scene only last year but then again that does not necessarily mean he will go any faster although the anticipation is high.

Performances like these do easily induce excited speculation as they are very rare indeed and we hope he can underline that performance further to dispel any doubts that it is a one-off.

[Conway]

Powell has actually been around for a while ...

He was a semi finalist in the 2002 Commonwealth Games ... He was 5th in his semi in 10.26 and ran on their 38.62 relay team ... His SB and PR were 10.12 … On the yearly list he was ahead of:

Leonard Scott
Chris Williams
Jason Gardener
Darvis Patton
Aziz Zakari
Dwight Thomas
Mickey Grimes
Marc Burns
Michael Frater
Ato Boldon
Ron Pognon
Nick Macrozonaris
Patrick Johnson
Terrence Trammell
Tyson Gay
Christian Malcolm

Asafa did NOT just fall off the turnip truck !!!!!

In 2003 Asafa was a quarterfinalist at the World Championships … He & Jon Drummond were both DQ'd in that starting debacle at Worlds !!His SB & PR were 10.02 and he was 12th on the yearly list !!! Asafa did NOT just find his way to the track recently !!!!

Everyone remembers 2004 … Asafa had a SB & PR of 9.87 … He only lost one race all year … Unfortunately that was at the Games where he placed 5th …
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Conway
Speed Thrills

[Dan]

[Kishan Gill]

I am aware that mo first emerged in 1995 after placing second in the us champs but his first big breakthrough year was 1997 just as I am aware that powell was a medal contender in 2003 but was disq with drummond in the semis but 2003 was only 2 years ago so yes he has not been around a very long time and therefore has a potentially long career ahead of him.

My definition of being around a long time particularly in this era when sprinters can perform at a high level into their thirties is to be running at that level for at least four or five years just as burrell had been around a long time when he ran 9.85.

Powell on the other hand is still a relative newcomer.

Well thats my definition of timespans for sprinters.

[Conway]

I consider '02 Powell's "emergence" year ... He ran 10.12 and competed in the Commonwealth Games ... And ran on a mid 38 relay squad as its fastest member ... Anywhere but the US that is substantial ...
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Conway
Speed Thrills

[Kishan Gill]

It is all in how we interpret wordings.

Yes, powells emergence can be called 2002 as he was running at a world class.
I was thinking more on the lines of becoming a big name in the event to casual fans rather than outside die-hard track enthusiasts in which case it would be 2004.

He is still a relatively new commodity if you take a sprinters careerspan to be around a decade on average but I concede to your interpretation that he did emerge in 2002 if you follow the sport closely.

[Kishan Gill]

Apologies for the grammatical slips in those sentences.

[Conway]

I'm not sure we can ever measure anything based on the observances of the casual track fan ... The casual fan only takes notice of outstanding performances ... And a world class athlete can go an entire career without ever posting an Outstanding performance, yet like a Darren Campbell may be around and in the mix for years !!!!

I measure emergence by performance - whether anyone notices or not ... If you are performaing at a World Class level you are a world class athletes ... Sort of like a tree falling in the woods ... Just because no one was there to hear it, doesn't mean it didn't make noise !!!
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Conway
Speed Thrills