Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2008 Girls 6A Projections # League State 1 Annamarie Maag 18:00.6 18:21 So Jesuit 2 Alexandra Jones 18:56.1 18:26 Sr St. Mary's -- Khalia Tidwell 19:05.4 18:35 Jr Gresham 3 Tate Murray 18:43.9 18:34 Jr Lake Oswego 4 Noelle VanRysselberghe 18:23.8 18:44 Sr Jesuit 5 Lauren Lloyd 19:25.5 18:55 Jr Hood River 6 Piper Delaney 18:53 18:58 Sr South Medford 7 Lucy Whipps 19:28.3 18:58 Jr St. Mary's -- Erin McLaughlin 19:08.9 18:59 Jr Milwaukie -- Hayley Gregoire 18:38.5 18:59 So Beaverton 8 Betsy Kolberg 18:45.3 19:05 Sr Lincoln 9 Taylor Nowlin 19:17.3 19:07 Sr West Linn 10 Emily Wheeler 18:56 19:11 Sr Tualatin 11 Payton Schutte 18:54.4 19:15 So Jesuit 12 Adrienne Demaree 19:00.0 19:20 Fr Jesuit 13 Sasha Teninty 19:16 19:21 Jr South Eugene 14 Alexa Kearns 19:51.7 19:22 Jr St. Mary's -- Laura Matzke 19:08 19:23 Sr Forest Grove 15 Audrey Botti 19:06.5 19:27 Sr Sunset -- Sharon Rooker 19:15 19:30 So Forest Grove 16 Claire Hagler 19:10.5 19:31 Sr Jesuit 17 Shannon Mahoney 19:17.8 19:38 So Jesuit 18 Erin Jones 20:13.6 19:44 Sr Hood River -- Bryanna Oelrich 19:40 19:45 Jr Roseburg 19 Julia Fonk 19:33.4 19:53 Jr Franklin 20 Paige Kouba 19:48 19:53 Fr South Eugene 21 Sabra DeVoir 19:34.9 19:55 So Jesuit 22 McKayla Fricker 19:40 19:55 Sr Canby -- Chloe Steinbeck 19:37.9 19:58 Sr Southridge 23 Courtney Hochstetler 19:59.8 19:59 So South Salem 24 Jen Olson (?) 20:00 Jr St. Mary's 25 Joy Shuefeldt 19:41.1 20:01 Sr Franklin -- Haley Hunt 19:40.6 20:01 So Southridge 26 Kelsey Bradshaw 19:57 20:02 Jr South Medford 27 Claire DeVoe 19:52.6 20:03 Fr Lincoln -- Jenny Wheeler 19:44.9 20:05 Jr Westview -- Michaela Freeby 20:15.8 20:06 So Putnam 28 Chelsea Ollar 20:18.6 20:09 So West Linn -- Andrea Dettmann 20:40.4 20:10 So Centennial 29 Lindsey Hartung 19:51.2 20:11 Jr Sunset 30 Lauren Morgan 20:07 20:12 Fr South Medford -- Kayla Perry 20:12.6 20:12 Sr McNary -- Kate Jette 20:24.5 20:15 Jr Clackamas 31 Melissa Arndorfer 20:02 20:17 Sr Tualatin 32 Mckenzie Kerr 20:49.3 20:19 So Hood River 33 Erin Bergmann 20:49.5 20:20 So St. Mary's -- Emily Shelton 20:06 20:21 Sr Newberg 34 Morgan Johnstone 20:06 20:21 So Tualatin 35 Rachel Parker 20:17 20:22 So South Eugene 36 Grace Lin 20:24.0 20:23 So West Salem -- Sammy Pettibone 20:20 20:25 Sr Roseburg 37 Keeley Tillotson 20:12 20:27 Sr Tualatin 38 Nora Wilson 20:22 20:27 So South Eugene -- Erica Nelson 20:28.0 20:27 Sr Sprague 39 Jessica Gamroth 20:09.3 20:29 So Sunset 40 Devan Armstrong 20:26 20:31 Jr South Medford 41 Kathryn Flyte 20:42.8 20:33 Jr West Linn -- Ariel Clark 21:05.8 20:36 Sr David Douglas -- Kelly Bartz 20:45.7 20:36 Jr Lakeridge -- Hannah Cohen 20:36.6 20:36 Jr Sprague 42 Amelia Helmick 20:32 20:37 So South Eugene 43 Julia Kennedy 20:23 20:38 So Tualatin 44 Mairin Peck 20:19.1 20:39 Fr Lincoln 45 Madison Trowbridge 20:19.4 20:39 So Franklin 46 Katie Skinner 20:19.8 20:40 Jr Franklin 47 Allison Young 20:23.3 20:43 Jr Franklin 48 Riley Morgan 20:38 20:43 Jr South Medford 49 Laura Copenhagen 20:29 20:44 Sr Canby -- Sarah Jabin 20:44.7 20:44 Jr McKay -- Ragan Allen 20:24.6 20:45 So Grant -- Talli Koskela 20:31 20:46 Fr Newberg 50 Laura Burros 20:27.3 20:47 Sr Sunset 51 Evelynn Moz 20:49.3 20:48 Jr South Salem 52 Grace Viuhkola 21:17.9 20:48 So Hood River -- Breanna Phelps 20:44 20:49 Fr North Medford -- Coral McKibben 20:45 20:50 Jr Sheldon 53 Kelsey Guerins 21:02.1 20:52 Jr West Linn 54 Emily Meltzer 20:54.1 20:53 Jr West Salem -- Netanya Beard 20:34.2 20:54 So Wilson -- Chandra Johanningmeier 21:23.6 20:54 Jr Reynolds 55 Alia Mowery 20:50 20:55 So South Eugene 56 Maggie Ruwitch 20:41 20:56 So Canby 57 Elizabeth Vogeltanz 20:46 21:01 Sr Tualatin 58 Lauren Morris 20:47 21:02 Jr Tualatin 59 Kellen Friedrich 21:05.1 21:04 Fr South Salem 60 Bree Whitehead 21:05.8 21:05 Sr West Salem 61 Amy Lin 21:06.3 21:05 Fr West Salem 62 Bea Bacher 20:46.0 21:06 Jr Lincoln 63 Marilyn Brooks 21:06.9 21:06 So South Salem 64 Erin Morrow 21:18.1 21:08 So West Linn 65 Jenna White 20:48.2 21:08 Fr Sunset -- Melanie Becic 20:51.4 21:11 Jr Grant 66 Lauren Graebner 21:07 21:12 Sr South Eugene 67 Jocelyn Aguilar 21:27.5 21:18 Fr Lake Oswego 68 Sarah Morse 21:29.3 21:19 Jr Lake Oswego 69 Chelsea Sinks 21:24.6 21:24 Jr South Salem 70 Emily Hoard 21:40.6 21:31 So Lake Oswego 71 Molly Ponkevitch 21:42.2 21:32 Sr Lake Oswego 72 Jasmin Volk 21:12.7 21:33 Sr Lincoln 73 Kayla Nowlin 21:42.6 21:33 Jr West Linn 74 Lila Hawkinson 21:35.2 21:34 So South Salem 75 Liz Goodrich 21:19.6 21:40 Sr Sunset 76 Sierra Pruitt 21:25 21:40 Fr Canby 77 Tiffany White 21:22.4 21:42 Jr Sunset 78 Jeanette Edel 21:26.0 21:46 Sr Franklin 79 Nora Helfand 22:19.0 21:49 Fr St. Mary's 80 Alex Ostler 22:19.3 21:49 So Hood River -- Lily Martin Chamberlain 21:30.5 21:51 Fr Grant 81 Imogen Kane 21:32.2 21:52 Fr Lincoln 82 Ann Bernert 22:06.8 21:57 So West Linn 83 Erin Apodaca 21:58.3 22:57 Sr West Salem 84 Jennifer Stiles 22:31.2 22:01 Sr St. Mary's 85 Erica Chelgren 22:06 22:11 So South Medford 86 Boo (Jennifer) Lucas 22:47.2 22:17 Jr Hood River 87 Kelsey Mead 22:27.3 22:17 Sr Lake Oswego 88 Nicole Friedemann 22:16 22:31 So Canby 89 Caity Arias 22:35.5 22:35 Jr South Salem 90 Elizabeth Hintz 22:23 22:38 Fr Canby 91 Lauren Roberts 22:18.9 22:39 Fr Lincoln 92 Lindy Keiser 22:35 22:40 So South Medford 93 Rachel Elmer 22:40.8 22:40 Jr West Salem 94 Lauren Bailey 22:30.6 22:51 Sr Franklin 95 Sandy Gallardo 22:46 23:01 Sr Canby 96 Miranda Glover 23:18.2 23:17 Jr West Salem 97 Brittany Scrugham 23:33.2 23:23 So Lake Oswego 98 Crystal Lopez 25:22.5 24:53 Sr Hood River 1) Jesuit 1 - 4 - 11 - 12 - 16 - (17) - (21) = 44 2) St. Mary's 2 - 7 - 14 - 24 - 33 - (79) - (83) = 80 3) South Eugene 13 - 20 - 35 - 38 - 42 - (55) - (66) = 148 4) South Medford 6 - 26 - 30 - 40 - 48 - (84) - (91) = 150 5) Tualatin 10 - 31 - 34 - 37 - 43 - (57) - (58) = 155 6) Franklin 19 - 25 - 45 - 46 - 47 - (78) - (93) = 182 7) Hood River 5 - 18 - 32 - 52 - 80 - (85) - (98) = 187 8) West Linn 9 - 28 - 41 - 53 - 64 - (73) - (82) = 195 9) Sunset 15 - 29 - 39 - 50 - 65 - (75) - (77) = 198 10) Lincoln 8 - 27 - 44 - 62 - 72 - (81) - (90) = 213 11) South Salem 23 - 51 - 59 - 63 - 69 - (74) - (88) = 265 12) Lake Oswego 3 - 67 - 68 - 70 - 71 - (86) - (97) = 279 13) Canby 22 - 49 - 56 - 76 - 87 - (89) - (95) = 290 14) West Salem 36 - 54 - 60 - 61 - 92 - (94) - (96) = 303 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For 2008, no attempt was made to manually adjust the times for top runners in each league. In the past, fudge factors were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. The idea behind these projections is there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Nike Pre-Nationals, adidas, New Balance, etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. Unfortunately, for 2008, this was made quite difficult by the over-crowding at many of the invites which resulted in teams or individuals running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), plus the many courses of questionable length, making for little in the way of consistent comparisons.
