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Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections

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Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track

2005 Boys 4A Projections

						League	State	Adj	Score
1	Kenny Klotz (12)	C. Catholic	15:46	15:56	15:24	1
2	Isaac Stoutenburgh (12) Crater 		16:25	16:35	15:25	-
3	Jerhoemee Murray (12)	Century		15:45	16:10	15:40	-
4	Mat Cravens (12)	Franklin	15:49	15:44		2
5	Dylan Coleman		Summit		15:51	16:16	15:50	3
6	Jakob Keyser (11)	Crater  	16:24	16:34	15:50	-
7	Eric Lynch (12) 	South Eugene  	16:16	16:16	16:00	4
8	Eddie James (12)	Marshall	16:06	16:01		-
9	Ricky Mendez (12)	McKay		16:01	16:22	16:05	-
10	Ben Frisbee		Lake Oswego	16:04	16:09		-
11	Eric Zeuthen (12)	Westview	16:01	16:26	16:10	-
12	Bryce Burgess (10)	Franklin	16:16	16:11		5
13	Taylor Morgan (10)	C. Catholic	16:03	16:13		6
14	Luke Wiltshire (11)	C. Catholic	16:04	16:14		7
15	Walter Juarez		Hermiston	16:09	16:34	16:15	8
16	Rob Maletis (12)	Jesuit		16:04	16:29	16:16	9
17	Nick Turner (11)	C. Catholic	16:06	16:16		10
18	Jim Bethune (12)	Grant		16:21	16:16		11
19	Ryan Waite		St. Helens	16:44	16:49	16:19	12
20	Nathan Endicott (12) 	Thurston 	16:19	16:19		13
21	Sean Coleman (11)  	Canby  		16:22	16:27	16:20	14
22	Kevin Elder		St. Helens	16:15	16:20		15
23	Nathan Knutson (10)	Grant		16:27	16:22		16
24	Joseph Carpenter (11)	Lincoln		16:28	16:23		-
25	Ryan Erickson (12) 	Churchill 	16:24	16:24		-
26	Cam Eberhart (12)	West Albany	16:04	16:25		-
27	Brandon Snook		Oregon City	16:25	16:30		-
28	Mack Leckband		Summit		16:06	16:31		17
29	Ryan Beaver (12)	Gresham		16:21	16:31		-
30	Leo Castillo		Hood River	16:07	16:32		-
31	Chase Kaufman (11)	Centennial	16:22	16:32		18
32	Tim Roady (11)		David Douglas	16:23	16:33		-
33	Karl Dickman		Summit		16:10	16:35		19
34	Corey Heppner (12)	Grant		16:40	16:35		20
35	Lukas Fenley (11) 	Thurston 	16:35	16:35		21
36	Scott Ward		Clackamas	16:30	16:35		22
37	Chris Reed (11) 	Klamath Union 	16:36	16:36		-
38	Samot Turina (9)	C. Catholic	16:26	16:36		23
39	Andre Halabi(12)	West Salem	16:15	16:36		-
40	Krieg Mueller		Hermiston	16:12	16:37		24
41	Sean Kovensky (12) 	South Eugene 	16:37	16:37		25
42	Cody Fairbanks (12)	Hillsboro	16:12	16:37		-
43	Justin Dean		Hermiston	16:13	16:38		26
44	Lane Johnson (12) 	Tualatin 	16:33	16:38		-
45	Jared Bassett (10) 	Marshfield 	16:39	16:39		-
46	Josiah Johnstone (12) 	McMinnville 	16:36	16:41		-
47	Austin Knutson (12)	Grant		16:49	16:44		27
48	Brian Saxe		St. Helens	16:40	16:45		28
49	George Tkebuchava (12)	Centennial	16:36	16:46		29
50	Brookman Holmes (12)	Crescent Valley	16:25	16:46		30
51	Dan Alvarez (12) 	Newberg 	16:41	16:46		-
52	Forrest Jarvi (10)	Sprague		16:26	16:47		-
53	Josh Raines (11) 	Canby 		16:42	16:47		31
54	Brian Manning (10)	Jesuit		16:23	16:48		32
55	Justin Karr (11) 	Tigard 		16:43	16:48		-
56	Sam Wotipka (11)	C. Catholic	16:39	16:49		33
57	Spencer Bonney (12) 	Ashland 	16:39	16:49		34
58	Sam Larson (11)		Jesuit		16:26	16:51		35
59	Matt Smith (12)		Jesuit		16:26	16:51		36
60	Travis Isaacs		Clackamas	16:48	16:53		37
61	Dan Landrum (12) 	Klamath Union 	16:44	16:54		-
62	Peter Maag (10)		Jesuit		16:29	16:54		38
63	Jeremy Liebman		Clackamas	16:49	16:54		39
64	Michael Weller (12)	Corvallis	16:33	16:54		-
65	Brad Bauer (11) 	Thurston 	16:55	16:55		40
66	Eric Kirch (12) 	Tigard 		16:50	16:55		-
67	Kyle Burnham (12)	Beaverton	16:30	16:55		41
68	Kevin O'Malley (11)	C. Catholic	16:47	16:57		42
69	Michael Herrmann (10)	North Salem	16:36	16:57		43
70	Tosch Roy		Summit		16:34	16:59		44
71	Cameron Barleen (12) 	Ashland 	16:49	16:59		45
72	Garrett Frierson (11) 	North Medford 	16:51	17:01		46
73	Ryan Petersen (11) 	Thurston 	17:02	17:02		47
74	Curtis Griff		St. Helens	16:57	17:02		48
75	Kersee Lind		Hermiston	16:38	17:03		49
76	Eddie Niedermeyer (12)	Jesuit		16:38	17:03		50
77	Matt Miner (10) 	Ashland 	16:53	17:03		51
78	Jesse Davis		Clackamas	17:00	17:05		52
79	Rick Nielson (11) 	North Medford 	16:57	17:07		53
80	Austin Fricker (10) 	Canby 		17:02	17:07		54
81	Josh Seitz (11) 	Forest Grove 	17:02	17:07		55
82	Colin Tracey (11) 	South Eugene 	17:08	17:08		56
83	Eamonn Kerr-Daly (9) 	South Eugene 	17:09	17:09		57
84	Kyle Saxe		St. Helens	17:04	17:09		58
85	Justin Marble (11) 	Forest Grove 	17:05	17:10		59
86	Will Gordon		Clackamas	17:06	17:11		60
87	Daniel Rooker (10) 	Forest Grove 	17:07	17:12		61
88	John O'Hollerin		Summit		16:48	17:13		62
89	Aaron Cody (12)		Beaverton	16:49	17:14		63
90	Eric Weinbender (10)	Forest Grove 	17:11	17:16		64
91	Louis Bodin (12) 	South Eugene 	17:18	17:18		65
92	Ryan Graebner (10) 	South Eugene 	17:19	17:19		66
93	John Arnold (12)	Crescent Valley	16:58	17:19		67
94	Dusty Klein (10) 	Forest Grove 	17:14	17:19		68
95	Gatlin Neuman		Summit		16:55	17:20		69
96	John Ngo		Hermiston	16:56	17:21		70
97	Micah Depper		Summit		16:57	17:22		71
98	Mike DeTienne (10)	Centennial	17:12	17:23		72
99	Michael Heppner (12)	Grant		17:28	17:23		73
100	Mark Bozarth-Dreher (10)Crescent Valley	17:02	17:23		74
101	Jake Caplener (10)	Franklin	17:29	17:24		75
102	Nick Petshow (10) 	Canby 		17:19	17:24		76
103	Brayden Moore (12)	Crescent Valley	17:04	17:25		77
104	John Harris (12) 	Ashland 	17:16	17:26		78
105	Dennis McCaffrey (12) 	Ashland 	17:17	17:27		79
106	Skylar Evans (10)	Franklin	17:32	17:27		80
107	Luke Rothenberger (10)	Jesuit		17:03	17:28		81
108	Nick Orvis		St. Helens	17:23	17:28		82
109	Grant Eldridge		Clackamas	17:25	17:30		83
110	Michael Theis (11) 	Canby 		17:25	17:30		84
111	Richard Zhu (10) 	North Medford 	17:21	17:31		85
112	Alex Evans (12)		Franklin	17:36	17:31		86
113	Darrell Terry (11) 	North Medford 	17:22	17:32		87
114	Javier Montes		Hermiston	17:10	17:35		88
115	Josh Blesse (11) 	North Medford 	17:25	17:35		89
116	Sam Curtis (12) 	North Medford 	17:26	17:36		90
117	Dan Oakey (11)		Centennial	17:26	17:36		91
118	Jeremiah Costalez (12)	North Salem	17:16	17:37		92
119	Tanner Arndt (10) 	Ashland 	17:28	17:38		93
120	Vincent Kirse (10)	Beaverton	17:15	17:40		94
121	Ben Zarov (12)		Grant		17:46	17:41		95
122	Matthew Hutchinson	Clackamas	17:37	17:42		96
123	Kevin Cook (11) 	Ashland 	17:33	17:43		97
124	Matt Blackmore (12)	Centennial	17:33	17:43		98
125	Jonathan Lanning (11) 	Thurston 	17:45	17:45		99
126	Josh Miller (11)	Centennial	17:35	17:45		100
127	David Leyva (12) 	North Medford 	17:36	17:46		101
128	Max Bruch (12)		Crescent Valley	17:26	17:47		102
129	Neal Lloyd		Hermiston	17:25	17:50		103
130	Nick Wallace (10) 	Forest Grove 	17:47	17:52		104
131	N. Keilholtz (10)	Franklin	17:59	17:54		105
132	Kyle Schytz (11)	Beaverton	17:29	17:54		106
133	Jared Torassa (12)	North Salem	17:34	17:55		107
134	Brice Plouse (11) 	Thurston 	17:58	17:58		108
135	Ben Gelles (11)		Grant		18:04	17:59		109
136	Maneesh Arora (10)	Beaverton	17:35	18:00		110
137	JC Martin (12)		Crescent Valley	17:42	18:03		111
138	Eric Manley (12)	Franklin	18:15	18:05		112
139	Marcus Himmelhoch (10)	Beaverton	17:42	18:07		113
140	David Jones (11) 	Thurston 	18:08	18:08		114
141	Kurt Juengling (12)	North Salem	17:48	18:09		115
142	Michael Stogsdill (10) 	Canby 		18:09	18:14		116
143	Jared Stephens (10)	Centennial	18:05	18:15		117
144	Brian Youngern (9)	North Salem	18:00	18:21		118
145	Nick Berry (12) 	Forest Grove 	18:16	18:21		119
146	Travis Preciado (12) 	Canby 		18:19	18:24		120
147	Brandon Taft (10)	Beaverton	18:08	18:33		121
148	Isaac Otto (12)		Crescent Valley	18:15	18:36		122
149	Walker Augustyniak (10) South Eugene 	18:59	18:59		123
150	Ben Krause		St. Helens	19:05	19:10		124
151	Alex Beeken (11)	North Salem	18:51	19:12		125
152	Cody Henderson (11)	North Salem	19:36	19:47		126

1. (47) Central Catholic - 1 - 6 - 7 - 10 - 23 - 33 - 42	(#1 ranked)
2. (145) Summit - 3 - 17 - 19 - 44 - 62 - 69 - 71		(#3 ranked)
3. (147) Grant - 11 - 16 - 20 - 27 - 73 - 95 - 109		(#6 ranked)
4. (150) Jesuit - 9 - 32 - 35 - 36 - 38 - 50 - 81		(#2 ranked)
5. (161) St. Helens - 12 - 15 - 28 - 48 - 58 - 82 - 124		(#5 ranked)
6. (177) Hermiston - 8 - 24 - 26 - 49 - 70 - 88 - 103		(#4 ranked)
7. (207) South Eugene - 4 - 25 - 56 - 57 - 65 - 66 - 123	(#7 ranked)
8. (210) Clackamas - 22 - 37 - 39 - 52 - 60 - 83 - 96		(#9 ranked)
9. (220) Thurston - 13 - 21 - 40 - 47 - 99 - 108 - 114		(#8 ranked)
10. (248) Franklin - 2 - 5 - 75 - 80 - 86 - 105 - 112		(#10 ranked)
11. (259) Canby - 14 - 31 - 54 - 76 - 84 - 116 - 120		(#11t ranked)
12. (287) Ashland - 34 - 45 - 51 - 78 - 79 - 93 - 97		(#11t ranked)
13. (307) Forest Grove - 55 - 59 - 61 - 64 - 68 - 104 - 119	(#14t ranked)
14. (308) Centennial - 18 - 29 - 72 - 91 - 98 - 100 - 117
15. (350) Crescent Valley - 30 - 67 - 74 - 77 - 102 - 111 - 122
16. (360) North Medford - 46 - 53 - 85 - 87 - 89 - 90 - 101	(#14t ranked)
17. (414) Beaverton - 41 - 63 - 94 - 106 - 110 - 113 - 121
18. (475) North Salem - 43 - 92 - 107 - 115 - 118 - 125 - 126

The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district
courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course (that should
be close to the state meet times, give or take). For the top runners in each
league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit
expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts.
I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time
and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower,
so it goes...  The idea being, there's no way to take into account every
variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack.
The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals.  A few notable
athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the
above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions.

Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the
best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a
week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack, but
for the most part, results tracked pretty well from one meet to the next for
teams and individuals. The key was coming up with some average numbers for how
fast or slow the various big meet courses (like Danner, adidas, New Balance,
etc.) were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare
respective courses.

Like with the Girls list, the IMC and SOC league results were the most difficult
to project.  I suspect Hermiston will finish a bit higher than the #6 they're
projected at above, but there's no guarantee they'll be healthier or less
fatigued from travel at State.  Grant and Franklin may well finish worse than
projected, as their league times were adjusted down, as opposed to the girls'
PIL times which were adjusted up.  Just an oddity of course comparisons.