Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2013 Girls 6A Projections - revised 11/01 1 1 Ella Donaghu 18:20 10 Grant 2 2 Paige Rice 18:21.4 12 St Mary's 3 3 Charlotte Corless 18:25 12 Sunset 4 4 Gracie Todd 18:27.8 11 Sheldon 5 5 Lacey Conner 18:37.8 10 St Mary's 6 -- Jessa Perkinson 18:38.8 12 Roseburg 7 6 Brooke Chuhlantseff 18:40 10 West Salem 8 7 Sara Tsai 18:43.8 11 South Eugene 9 8 Piper Donaghu 18:45 12 Grant 10 9 Phacelia Cramer 18:58.8 11 South Eugene 11 10 Molly McCullough 19:07.3 11 St Mary's 12 11 Nicole Griffiths 19:09.9 10 Sunset 13 -- Jenna Anderson 19:14.8 10 Roseburg 14 12 Audrey Huelskamp 19:15.9 10 Sunset 15 -- Erin Gregoire 19:24.7 11 Beaverton 16 -- Kennedy Allen 19:25.3 10 David Douglas 17 13 Lucy O'Sullivan 19:29.0 11 St Mary's 18 -- Sarah Medved 19:29.1 12 Westview 19 14 Hailey Francis 19:29.5 12 Sunset 20 -- Allison Martinez 19:29.6 12 Aloha 21 15 Dylan Hite 19:30 11 Jesuit 22 -- Gracie Tostenson 19:31.8 12 Crater 23 16 Maia Edwards 19:35.5 9 Clackamas 24 17 Isabel Huelskamp 19:36.9 10 Sunset 25 18 Leah Russell 19:44.8 10 Gresham 26 19 Jantzen Mazziotti 19:45.8 9 Sheldon 27 -- Whitney Rich 19:46.4 10 McMinnville 28 -- Tess Michaelson 19:47.4 12 Lincoln 29 -- Leah Norquist 19:49.6 12 Barlow 30 -- Brynne Merkley 19:55.4 11 David Douglas 31 20 Brighton Glassman 19:55.8 11 South Eugene 32 -- Britney Wimberly 19:56.8 12 Crater 33 21 Nicole McCullough 20:03.8 10 Jesuit 34 22 Rubi Vergara-Grindell 20:03.9 11 Forest Grove 35 23 Kate Patterson 20:04.3 10 St Mary's 36 -- Johanna Briscoe 20:04.5 9 West Linn 37 24 Annie Richards 20:04.8 10 South Eugene 38 25 Natalie Mosman 20:07.8 12 South Eugene 39 26 Meredith Bothman 20:08.8 12 Sheldon 40 27 Hannah Harkness 20:08.9 11 Jesuit 41 28 Thea Foulk 20:09.9 10 Grant 42 (29) Abby Diess 20:11.9 11 St Mary's 43 30 McKenna Martin 20:12.8 9 Gresham 44 31 Katie Leavy 20:13.0 10 Jesuit 45 32 Vivian Hawkinson 20:15.2 12 South Salem 46 -- Braanna Weber 20:15.4 11 Century 47 33 Aimee Piercy 20:15.8 10 Jesuit 48 -- Anika Rasubala 20:16.2 10 McKay 49 -- Melissa Clark 20:16.2 10 McKay 50 -- Laura Manning 20:20.0 12 Lakeridge 51 34 Emilia Anderson 20:20.2 12 Forest Grove 52 35 Elizabeth Dean 20:23.8 11 Tigard 53 36 Courtney Beard 20:23.8 11 Clackamas 54 -- Lia Newman 20:30.0 12 Lakeridge 55 37 Libby Kokes 20:32.6 11 Grant 56 -- Lauren Lykins 20:33.0 12 Hillsboro 57 (38) Melina McClure 20:38.8 9 South Eugene 58 (39) Chiara Chandlee 20:39.8 12 St Mary's 59 -- Miranda Nelson 20:41.0 11 Oregon City 60 (40) Amanda Calderwood 20:41.2 10 Sunset 61 -- Debora DeLeon 20:41.8 12 Newberg 62 -- Rachel Chao 20:42.6 11 Reynolds 63 (41) Parker Kolpin 20:42.8 10 South Eugene 64 42 Jacelyn Davis 20:44.7 12 Gresham 65 43 Aleksa Wood 20:46.2 12 South Salem 66 44 Bailey Hardinge 20:50.5 10 Tigard 67 45 Allie Rasmussen 20:52.2 11 West Salem 68 46 Hannaly Duff-McGaughey 20:52.9 11 Tigard 69 (47) Grace Becker 20:54.3 9 Jesuit 70 48 Jean Elliott 20:56.3 10 Grant 71 (49) Kim Sanders 20:56.4 9 Jesuit 72 -- Aisha Amaitsa 20:59.2 12 McNary 73 50 Madison Zenke 20:59.8 12 Sheldon 74 51 Veronique Calmels 21:07.4 10 Tigard 75 (52) Mika Nevo 21:08.3 10 Sunset 76 53 Sophia Patterson 21:11.2 12 South Salem 77 54 Mckenna Masterson 21:14.9 11 Tigard 78 55 Ana Ramirez 21:18.2 12 West Salem 79 56 Emily Rose 21:19.2 11 Gresham 80 57 Kimberly Heesacker 21:19.5 11 Forest Grove 81 58 Leah Skeele 21:20.8 12 Sheldon 82 59 Amber Harvey 21:23.4 11 Clackamas 83 60 Claire Wittenberg 21:26.2 10 South Salem 84 61 Ellie Schnorr 21:26.8 9 Forest Grove 85 62 Sydney Peters 21:28.9 11 Clackamas 86 (63) Sarah Peyer-Nelson 21:30.0 12 Grant 87 -- Brooke White 21:30.2 10 McKay 88 64 Elissa Anderson 21:33.2 9 Forest Grove 89 (65) Madeleine Rosebrook 21:36.8 10 Sheldon 90 (66) Megan Franz 21:46.1 12 Tigard 91 (67) Julia Sherman 21:49.0 12 Grant 92 68 Zoe Clegg 21:50.6 11 Clackamas 93 (69) Marley Johnson 21:51.3 9 Tigard 94 70 Alicia Phan 21:55.2 12 West Salem 95 (71) Corinne Reed 21:56.8 12 Forest Grove 96 (72) Brie Dunne 22:00.8 12 Sheldon 97 73 Emily Cantrell-Cole 22:06.2 11 West Salem 98 (74) Leah Zetterlund 22:07.3 12 Clackamas 99 75 Adriana Cordova Perez 22:18.2 9 South Salem 100 (76) Juliet Hewitt 22:25.2 11 West Salem 101 77 Hannah Johnson 22:27.1 9 Gresham 102 (78) Tara Campbell 22:32.4 11 Forest Grove 103 (79) MeeMee Crossler-Laird 22:33.2 12 South Salem 104 (80) Emma Bidwell 22:35.2 11 South Salem 105 (81) Grace Livengood 22:59.2 11 West Salem 106 (82) Kayla McNeeley 23:04.2 12 Clackamas 107 (83) Brenna McBride 23:11.3 10 Gresham 108 (84) Alicia Nunziato 23:59.5 12 Gresham 1) St Mary's 2 - 5 - 10 - 13 - 23 - (29) - (39) = 53 (#1-5 spread = 102.9 sec) 2) Sunset 3 - 11 - 12 - 14 - 17 - (40) - (52) = 57 (#1-5 spread = 71.9 sec) 3) South Eugene 7 - 9 - 20 - 24 - 25 - (38) - (41) = 85 (#1-5 spread = 84 sec) 4) Grant 1 - 8 - 28 - 37 - 48 - (63) - (67) = 122 (#1-5 spread = 156.3 sec) 5) Jesuit 15 - 21 - 27 - 31 - 33 - (47) - (49) = 127 (#1-5 spread = 45.8 sec) 6) Sheldon 4 - 19 - 26 - 50 - 58 - (65) - (72) = 157 (#1-5 spread = 173 sec) 7) Gresham 18 - 30 - 42 - 56 - 77 - (83) - (84) = 223 (#1-5 spread = 162.3 sec) 8) Tigard 35 - 44 - 46 - 51 - 54 - (66) - (69) = 230 (#1-5 spread = 51.1 sec) 9) Forest Grove 22 - 34 - 57 - 61 - 64 - (71) - (78) = 238 (#1-5 spread = 89.3 sec) 10) Clackamas 16 - 36 - 59 - 62 - 68 - (74) - (82) = 241 (#1-5 spread = 135.1 sec) 11) West Salem 6 - 45 - 55 - 70 - 73 - (76) - (81) = 249 (#1-5 spread = 206.2 sec) 12) South Salem 32 - 43 - 53 - 60 - 75 - (79) - (80) = 263 (#1-5 spread = 123 sec) Course adjustments applied this year: CVC +22.2 Metro +40.0 MHC +1.5 Pac +15.0 SWC +41.8 TRL -1.3 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons.
