Oregon High School 6A (formerly 4A) State XC Projections
Presented by: VOQ Training for Cross Country & Track
2014 Boys 6A Projections - revised 10/28 @ 10:40pm # Pts Name Time GR School 1 1 Reilly Bloomer 16:05.4 12 South Eugene 2 2 Ahmed Muhumed 16:06.0 10 West Salem 3 3 Jackson Mestler 16:07.6 11 Sheldon 4 -- Luis Torres 16:18.5 11 Aloha 5 -- Thomas Morrell III 16:21.0 12 Centennial 6 4 Roman Ollar 16:24.1 11 West Linn 7 5 Hassan Ibrahim 16:24.8 9 David Douglas 8 6 Grayson Ollar 16:26.2 11 West Linn 9 7 Mason Wegener 16:26.2 11 South Eugene 10 8 Zack Lavier 16:26.7 11 Central Catholic 11 9 Sam Truax 16:26.7 12 Central Catholic 12 10 Sam Lomax 16:26.7 12 Central Catholic 13 11 Gunnar Vik 16:27.2 12 Central Catholic 14 12 Maneet Khaira 16:29.7 12 Sunset 15 13 Archer Morgan 16:30.0 12 Forest Grove 16 14 Murimi Nyamu 16:30.0 11 Forest Grove 17 15 Michael McCausland 16:30.8 10 Central Catholic 18 -- Nabi Amin 16:32.9 12 Cleveland 19 16 Mark Sussman 16:35.5 12 Sunset 20 17 Cody Larson 16:35.8 12 South Medford 21 18 Andy Muha 16:37.3 10 Sunset 22 19 Ronald Graham 16:37.4 12 Lincoln 23 20 Tristan Carpenter 16:37.7 12 Sheldon 24 21 Jacob Shelton 16:38.7 11 Sheldon 25 22 Joshua Schumacher 16:40.5 9 Jesuit 26 -- Jake Littrell 16:40.6 12 Thurston 27 23 Jenner Higgins 16:41.7 10 Sheldon 28 24 Seth Berdahl 16:41.7 12 Forest Grove 29 25 Michael Martin 16:42.7 11 South Eugene 30 26 Logan Phillips 16:43.3 10 Jesuit 31 27 Jack Howard 16:45.3 12 Wilson 32 -- Zach Cooper 16:46.8 12 Southridge 33 28 Conor Egan 16:47.8 11 West Linn 34 29 Adin Becker 16:48.0 11 Lincoln 35 30 Mark French 16:48.2 11 Tualatin 36 31 Eli Boudouris 16:49.7 12 Grant 37 32 Reed Mederos 16:50.4 11 Lakeridge 38 33 Dominic Arce 16:50.6 10 Lincoln 39 (34) Daniel Thompson 16:50.8 11 Central Catholic 40 35 Spencer Grant 16:53.3 12 Jesuit 41 -- Roba Sultessa 16:53.6 12 Cleveland 42 -- Conner Covey 16:54.9 12 North Medford 43 36 Noah Belcik 16:56.6 11 Lakeridge 44 37 Luke Sparks 16:57.8 11 Jesuit 45 38 Max Hite 16:58.2 11 Jesuit 46 39 Abdul Ahmed 16:58.5 12 David Douglas 47 -- Henry Mong 17:00.0 10 Franklin 48 40 Gabe Bader 17:01.1 11 Grant 49 41 Hunter Mosman 17:01.2 11 West Salem 50 42 Suleiman Ibrahim 17:01.5 11 David Douglas 51 (43) Jean Baptiste Toole 17:01.7 12 Central Catholic 52 -- John Mendrin 17:02.3 11 North Salem 53 44 Joe Kortenhof 17:03.1 11 Lincoln 54 45 Alex Slenning 17:03.7 9 Wilson 55 46 Pierce Miller 17:04.7 11 Lincoln 56 (47) Ransom Gravatt 17:04.9 11 Lincoln 57 -- Dylan Ryals 17:06.7 11 West Albany 58 (48) Cole Arenz 17:07.1 11 Jesuit 59 49 Zachary McNulty 17:07.4 11 Westview 60 50 Chase Howard 17:07.7 11 Wilson 61 51 Jakob Tew 17:07.8 10 Sunset 62 52 Gabriel Listro 17:09.5 12 South Medford 63 -- Steven Cranston 17:09.9 11 Canby 64 53 Branden Neville 17:11.8 12 South Medford 65 54 Stephen Fey 17:12.9 11 Sunset 66 55 Gus Elder 17:13.7 12 South Eugene 67 -- James Swyter 17:14.3 11 Oregon City 68 56 Haven Riffel 17:15.4 11 Grant 69 (57) Deklan Humble 17:16.1 9 Jesuit 70 (58) Ben Kawasaki 17:16.9 12 Sunset 71 59 Philip Quinton 17:17.4 9 Grant 72 60 Eli Cytrynbaum 17:18.3 11 South Eugene 73 (61) Shad Galloway 17:18.7 10 Sunset 74 62 Adam Klein 17:19.0 9 Tualatin 75 -- Quinton Wiltshire 17:19.5 11 Canby 76 63 Max Norman 17:25.8 9 Forest Grove 77 64 Caleb Seely 17:25.8 10 Wilson 78 65 Darby Estes 17:26.4 12 West Salem 79 66 Harley West 17:26.7 11 Reynolds 80 67 Timothy Motsiff 17:27.0 12 Westview 81 (68) Josiah Langstaff 17:28.2 12 Lincoln 82 -- Thomas Burney 17:29.9 10 South Salem 83 69 Michael Abeyta 17:32.3 9 McMinnville 84 (70) Spencer Tsai 17:32.4 10 South Eugene 85 71 Daniel Ragsdale 17:33.1 11 Lakeridge 86 (72) Noah Shlesinger 17:33.6 11 South Eugene 87 73 Enoch Cunningham 17:34.6 10 South Medford 88 74 Nikhil Anand 17:35.6 11 Westview 89 75 Matthew Lovos 17:36.7 12 Tualatin 90 76 Noah Vaughn 17:37.0 12 West Salem 91 77 Tim Jordan 17:38.7 12 Lakeridge 92 78 Hyrum Hansen 17:40.6 10 Forest Grove 93 79 Sam Behrens 17:41.4 11 Wilson 94 80 Jackson Skortman 17:41.9 9 Sheldon 95 81 Miles Moran 17:42.8 12 South Medford 96 82 Jacob Evans 17:43.0 12 West Linn 97 (83) Jase Jacobson 17:43.3 12 Wilson 98 (84) Kian Mitchell 17:43.5 9 Wilson 99 85 Brennen Le Bel 17:45.4 9 West Salem 100 86 Justin Miller 17:48.6 11 Lakeridge 101 87 Efrain Martinez 17:51.3 12 McMinnville 102 88 Kelvin Anderson 17:52.4 11 Westview 103 (89) Joel Centeno 17:53.5 10 South Medford 104 90 Keaton Holt 17:55.0 10 Grant 105 91 Devon Wilson 17:55.1 11 McMinnville 106 (92) Duncan Stewart 17:57.6 12 Forest Grove 107 93 Alex Derbyshire 17:58.4 12 Reynolds 108 (94) Hunter Schiess 17:58.5 10 West Salem 109 95 Andy Solano 17:59.3 10 Reynolds 110 96 Liam McKeegan 17:59.4 12 McMinnville 111 (97) Alex Harbert 18:04.0 10 Lakeridge 112 (98) Cowan Jenkins 18:04.1 12 Grant 113 99 Parker Elliott 18:05.8 12 West Linn 114 100 Jacob Fry 18:07.5 11 Reynolds 115 101 Erik Solano 18:07.8 10 Reynolds 116 (102) Jake Beach 18:09.2 12 West Salem 117 103 Nathan Willins 18:09.4 9 Westview 118 (104) Solomon Faulkner 18:10.7 10 Sheldon 119 (105) Jake Faha 18:12.6 12 Grant 120 106 William Calder 18:14.5 12 Tualatin 121 (107) James McAdam 18:21.0 10 South Medford 122 (108) Riley Stewart 18:26.1 10 Forest Grove 123 (109) Bradley Olson 18:26.6 12 West Linn 124 (110) Nick Salsburg 18:30.0 11 Lakeridge 125 111 Zachary Jager 18:30.2 12 McMinnville 126 (112) Johnathan Coleman 18:30.9 12 Reynolds 127 (113) Blake Ingram 18:32.1 11 McMinnville 128 (114) Peter Goetze 18:35.3 11 West Linn 129 (115) Daniel Marcantuono 18:37.7 11 Westview 130 116 Artem Tkachenko 18:42.9 11 David Douglas 131 (117) Timy Ivanishchuk 18:43.3 10 Reynolds 132 (118) Will Smothers 18:45.3 11 McMinnville 133 119 Evan Marx 18:58.4 10 Tualatin 134 (120) Oscar Orellana 18:59.5 11 Tualatin 135 (121) Sean MacPherson 19:01.3 10 Tualatin 136 (122) Keegan Dillon 19:02.9 10 Westview 137 (123) Grayson Mazziotti 19:11.7 9 Sheldon 138 124 Grant Collins 19:15.6 10 David Douglas 139 (125) Joshua Kellebrew 19:18.6 12 David Douglas 140 (126) Jose Diaz-Soriano 19:26.5 12 David Douglas 1) Central Catholic 8 - 9 - 10 - 11 - 15 - (34) - (43) = 53 2) Sheldon 3 - 20 - 21 - 23 - 80 - (104) - (123) = 147 3) South Eugene 1 - 7 - 25 - 55 - 60 - (70) - (72) = 148 4) Sunset 12 - 16 - 18 - 51 - 54 - (58) - (61) = 151 5) Jesuit 22 - 26 - 35 - 37 - 38 - (48) - (57) = 158 6) Lincoln 19 - 29 - 33 - 44 - 46 - (47) - (68) = 171 7) Forest Grove 13 - 14 - 24 - 63 - 78 - (92) - (108) = 192 8) West Linn 4 - 6 - 28 - 82 - 99 - (109) - (114) = 219 9) Wilson 27 - 45 - 50 - 64 - 79 - (83) - (84) = 265 10) West Salem 2 - 41 - 65 - 76 - 85 - (94) - (102) = 269 11) South Medford 17 - 52 - 53 - 73 - 81 - (89) - (107) = 276 12) Grant 31 - 40 - 56 - 59 - 90 - (98) - (105) = 276 13) Lakeridge 32 - 36 - 71 - 77 - 86 - (97) - (110) = 302 14) David Douglas 5 - 39 - 42 - 116 - 124 - (125) - (126) = 326 15) Westview 49 - 67 - 74 - 88 - 103 - (115) - (122) = 381 16) Tualatin 30 - 62 - 75 - 106 - 119 - (120) - (121) = 392 17) McMinnville 69 - 87 - 91 - 96 - 111 - (113) - (118) = 454 18) Reynolds 66 - 93 - 95 - 100 - 101 - (112) - (117) = 455 Course adjustments applied this year: GVC +25.5 Metro +28.2 MHC +12.7 PIL -2.1 SOC +4.4 TRL +13.4 The above list is an attempt at standardizing times for the various district courses and assigning an expected adjustment for a common course. For the top runners in each league, manual adjustments (i.e. fudge factors) were applied as needed to hit expected marks, as the favorites often qualify through at sub-maximal efforts. I avoided over-analyzing individuals outside of the top few, both to save time and to steer clear of personal bias. Some will be faster, some will be slower, so it goes... The idea being, there's no way to take into account every variable, but things will average out pretty well in the thick of the pack. The focus is on average team placement moreso than individuals. A few notable athletes either did not run their district meets or ran poorly there, so the above list could change some on the basis of bounce backs or substitutions. Heavier emphasis was placed on league results, since they're likely to be the best indication of what form people are in right now and where they'll be in a week. Some adjustments were made if things seemed too far out of whack. The key to this method is coming up with some average numbers for how fast or slow the various big meet courses were, then applying +/- numbers to qualifying individuals to compare respective courses. This is often complicated by the over-crowding at many of the invites which results in teams running fast one meet and slow the next (when tripped up at the start, for example), making for less consistent comparisons.
