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The 100m in 2003
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Conway
Olympic Medalist
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Joined: 25 Aug 2001
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Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2002 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well they are already at world class ... 10.09 is right there ... 20.32 is right there ... There weren't many running any better this year !!! And the difference with potential outside the US is similar to classroom size - fewer to work with, easier to do !!! The young kids are one reason Ato wanted to go to Trinidad to train !! I think he'll go back to HSI for his own benefit, but I am sure will see that money is spent on the young ones !! And who knows, they could end up at HSI in another year or two !!! Either way you can be sure that their devleopment will be given evey chance to oocur unlike those here in the US where success is random and not assured Sad

Conway
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Dan
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2002 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure I would consider "right there" and "world class" to be exactly the same thing... While those times would be competitive in a slow race, that reflects the best they've managed and not something that has yet been shown to be regularly duplicable. As you're all too well aware, the US is historically full of examples of teens who ran similarly spectacular times and failed to improve. Other than the current crop of young Brits, are there many strong examples to the contrary (groups, not individuals)?

If Ato can lure a few of those youngsters to HSI, that might be what Smith needs to keep the group afloat... Maybe that's why Maurice is helping out at Taft HS? Wink

Dan
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Conway
Olympic Medalist
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Joined: 25 Aug 2001
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Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2002 11:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, in all but a few elite races this year 10.09 and 20.32 puts you at or within touch of the top 3 !!! That's right there ... and all of these kids are consistent with their times (like a tenth or two of PRs) ... Heck most of the elite (aside from Mo/Dwain/Tim and Mo slipped 2nd half) were routinely aroun 10.2x this season and only a handful could run under 20.40 on anything remotely resembling a regular basis ...

the annual lists are very decieving this year ... 9 under 10.00 but only 3 with consistency ... This was actually a pretty slow year ... Just doesn't look as bad cause 1st thru 3rd was usually very quick !!! Much promise showed by MLF and Collins and after that a lot of hit and misses by the others - mostly misses ...

The Carribean has always been good about developing talent, they just haven't had much to work with - too many defections ... And really can't compare the US to anyone else - dynamics are just so different .. We squander talent here ... And there are too many other alternatives taking away from sprinting - can anyone say NFL .... A 10.09 junior here is almost guaranteed to pick up a 6 figure bonus check just for trying out with an NFL team !!! If Tim had been bigger he would have been trying to play as he as much has said so in a couple of interviews ...

The Carribean has rich history of track and field and wants to see it duplicated ... Here we do well in spite of ourselves ...

Conway
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Dan
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2002 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is being within striking distance of the also-rans significant from the standpoint of up and coming medal threats, though? Sure, the group you named might beat the occasional 10.10 or 10.20 runner, but I very much doubt things will change any time soon to the point where that's a OG/WC finalist/medalist time, so they still have to improve substantially before I'm willing to anoint them heir apparent...

Dan
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Conway
Olympic Medalist
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Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2002 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, the guys running 10.2x with consistency this year included:

JJ Johnson
Shaun Crawford
Bernard Williams
Coby Miller
Brian Lewis

So that gets you into the semi's of a major and possibly the finals ... Not into medallist territory ... but it does make you a threat in short time to US domination !!! And that was the initial point .. And with the next Olympics 2 seasons away it does make for a potential medallist "depending" on what happens ... If 2004 turns out like 2002 then Darell Brown is looking at being a potential medallist at 100 and Christian is looking at a 200 medal ... If 2004 turns out like 1997 or 1999, then these guys are future medallists walking !!

The nice thing aobut the whole thread is that the sprints have gone from great predictability to total unpredictability ... Making it great for fans ... I went to the trials in 2000 KNOWING that Mo was going ot win the 100, MJ was going ot win the 400 and the 2 of them were going ot dominate the 200 ... Now aside from the 200 final that is exactly what I saw ... Next years trials for Worlds is WIDE OPEN !!!! My heart will actually be beating as I sit in the stands and await the gun .... That's great ... And just as it was exciting to see Mo and Tim emerge in 1997 it will be the same watching new talent emerge next year ... I just get the feeling that that talent is going ot be Carribean based ..

Conway
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Dan
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2002 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That group has all shown themselves to be mid-9.9x runners when "on" (the appropriate comparison to PR's, in my mind), which still puts them anywhere from 0.15 to 0.25 ahead of the up and comers you mentioned. Not insurmountable, but certainly a big gap to make up.

Quote:
The nice thing aobut the whole thread is that the sprints have gone from great predictability to total unpredictability ... Making it great for fans ...

Most definitely. Everyone gets to be an expert until proven wrong. Smile

Dan
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Conway
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Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2002 2:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dan wrote:
That group has all shown themselves to be mid-9.9x runners when "on" (the appropriate comparison to PR's, in my mind), which still puts them anywhere from 0.15 to 0.25 ahead of the up and comers you mentioned. Not insurmountable, but certainly a big gap to make up.

Dan


True ... But history shows that every Olympic Trials has at least one "upset" individual make the US 100 squad (2000's was Curtis Johnson) as well as an unexpected medallist in the Games themselves (2000's was Obadele Thompson)

So being close come time for the big ones is VERY important, becasue it is typically in the big one - not the "little" ones - where the breakthroughs come through !!!! And what I like about the young group that I mentioned is that all so far have done their best under pressure ... As opposed to running "amazing" times in obscure situations ...

The problem I have with all of the old line runners that I named is that they perform just the opposite ... Big when it doesn't matter, small when it does (except for Williams under HSI) !!! So when one is getting worse and the others getting better, it is right at that .15 - .20 juncture that you mentioned where potential and oppotunity meet and reputations are made !!!!! Wink

Conway
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Justin
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Joined: 08 Oct 2001
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2002 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Darrel Brown's 10.09 is more impressive when you remember that he's only 17! He set a world age 16 best of 10.24 last year (bonus prize for who can tell me the previous 'record' holder) and his 10.09 to win the WJC was 0.01 faster than MLF ran in 2000 at the same age.
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Paul
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2002 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was going to say Houston McTear, but I don't think he ran many full auto times.
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Dan
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2002 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't even think how to look it up... Marion Jones was close, wasn't she? Wink

Dan
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Conway
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Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2002 10:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK ... Do you know how hard it is to find information on 16 year old's ??? Basically impossible ... Having said that I am going to say MLF at 10.31 !!! Lots of 10.2x 17 year olds ... But can't find any at 16 ... That's my best shot ...

McTear was 18/19 when he clocked his best stuff ... There's the likes of Henry Thomas, Roy Martin, Johnny Jones and others around 17 ... William Reed was 10.24c at 16 but that doesn't count ... Quincy Watts was 10.30 but I think he was 17 ...

Thought about Raymond Stewart, but not sure what he did at 16 ... So i'll stick with MLF ...

Conway
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Justin
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2002 5:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It was Curtis Johnson, who ran 10.27 at age 16 in, I believe, 1992.

I don't even know how I know that.

Note on MLF - he first broke 11.00 at the age of 14. His progression is fascinating:

1995 (age 12) 12.14
1996 (age 13) 11.37
1997 (age 14) 10.93
1998 (age 15) 10.49/10.36w
1999 (age 16) 10.31/10.26w
2000 (age 17) 10.10
2001 (age 18) 10.12/9.97w
2002 (age 19) 10.04/9.97w

Now that is the progression of a man heading for the top level! I don't know what Darrel Brown's times were as a young teenager but I suspect they were just as good. These two seem to be the best young sprint prospects we've seen for a very long time.

Justin
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Dan
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2002 7:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow, that's very impressive progression indeed! It doesn't appear he has leveled off, either...

Curtis Johnson?? And here I thought he came out of nowhere when he joined HSI...

Dan
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Conway
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2002 7:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Are you sure it was Curtis Johnson ?? He was a senior in 1991 when he ran 10.24 ... But was only 17 at the time as I found a birthdate for him - 12/24/73 ... Did he run 10.27 as a Junior in High School ??? I know he had a few 10.2x's his senior year ... Wow, that would give him an improvement of only .2 over teh following 10 years !!!

That progression on MLF is interesting ... spectacular drop 14 to 15 and everything else steady ... And I agree about he and Brown and might even through in the Bolt kid ... Like I keep saying the US could be in for a shock in afew years ...

Conway
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Justin
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2002 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was right about Curtis Johnson but wrong about the year...it was 1990.

He ran 10.27 (1.6) at Fresno on 30 Jun 90. Born 24 Dec 73, he was 16 at the time. (From ATFS Annual 1991). That year he reached the sf of the WJC.

His progression (from 2002 ATFS Annual):

1988 (age 14) 10.64
1989 (15) 10.55
1990 (16) 10.27/10.25w
1991 (17) 10.24
1992 (18) 10.40/10.36w
1993 (19) 10.38
1994 (20) 10.59
1995 (21) 10.53/10.40w
1996 (22) no mark
1997 (23) 10.42/10.32w
1998 (24) 10.37
1999 (25) 10.09
2000 (26) 10.07
2001 (27) 10.10/10.00w

So, a teenage talent to eclipse them all, 7 wilderness years and then something like a fulfillment of that talent in recent years thanks to HSI.

Still, a salutory lesson, as if we needed it, that prodigious teenage talent does not always lead to adult success.

Justin
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