Run-Down Forums

[Conway]

And people say I'm a tough nut ... I think this year was mediocre only when you take a look at the top ... Greene, Boldon, Fredericks, and recently Montgomery have gotten the world accustomed to seeing "sub9.9s" as the basis for excellence ... But the rest of the world has been pretty much in line with what we saw this year ... Look at 01 for example:

2001
1 Maurice Greene USA 9.82
2 Tim Montgomery USA 9.84
3 Ato Boldon TRI 9.88
4 Bernard Williams USA 9.94
5 Dwain Chambers GBR 9.97
5 Mark Lewis-Francis GBR 9.97
7 Francis Obikwelu NGR 9.98
8 Kim Collins SKN 10.00
9 Nobuharu Asahara JPN 10.02
10 Obadele Thompson BAR 10.03


Take away Mo, Tim, and Ato and this year was better !!! And 01 was 1 of only 3 seasons with 3 men under 9.90 !!! I think we have gotten spoiled by a few men being as prolific as they have been ...

On that note I think that 04 may be the last fast year ... At least for a while I expect big pushes from Mo, Tim, and Ato ... And then not much more in subsequent years ... I would expect next year to be fast ... Right from the start ... And I don't expect that we will see parity next year ... Most Olympic seasons have 2 or 3 guys asserting themselves early ... Trying to gain that mental edge over everyone else ... I would expect a fast time from either the Mt Sac or Fukuoka meets (both early season) ... Something on the order of 9.91 to 9.95 ... That will set the stage for someone else to try and answer ... From that point on it will be 'on" .. I don't think we will see a record, but I do think the games will go in 9.8x ... Possibly low ...
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Conway
Speed Thrills

[Dan]

I agree with that, but only up to a point. It's been my observation across events and across sports that there are almost always 2-3 athletes head and shoulders above the rest and a very typical distribution behind them. It's very uncommon to have a greater or lesser number of truly elites. Some law of averages I don't fully understand... There shouldn't be any reason why you couldn't have a flurry of elites one year, but it's next to impossible in practice (think men's 200m in 2000 and women's 400m/800m the past two years). Sort of like being in the right place at the right time in team sports. What we've got this year in the men's sprints is that typical runner-up distribution sans the leaders, which makes it a rather weak year.

Dan
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[MiamiD J30]

Anyone tell me if you think thest 10m splits will be achieved in the next 5-10 yrs:

0-10m: 1.67s (1.69s now)
10-20m: 0.98s (1.00s now)
20-30m: 0.87s (0.89s now)
30-40m: 0.84s (0.86s now)
40-50m: 0.82s (0.84 now)
50-60m: 0.79s (0.82 now)
60-70m: 0.80s (0.83 now)
70-80m: 0.81s (0.83 now)
80-90m: 0.83s (0.85 now)
90-100m: 0.84 (0.85 now)

Total: 9.18s 100m
9.28s with RT

Are these realistic yet?
Or are they too futuristic?

Everyone please give your opinon, and state what splits are realistic or not.

Jason

[X King]

[Conway]

[Conway]

[X King]

Conway you're more than right about 'the body's threshold' (not in those words).

It seems that everytime someone seems to be headng for something extraordinary (i.e. Mo in Edmonton WCH '01) there is a subsequent problem.

The body 'breaks down', the is difference in the wind, the weather, anything...

I read on another T&F Forum, that when Mo's says everytime he steps on the track he expects a World Record. That this comment may well be true.
The fact that Mo has no control over the weather (heat, humidity, wind etc...) he only has control over how he runs...

Maybe the next decade will provide us with somekind of 'superhuman'.

How I wish to be that superhuman!!!...
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Anon.

[MiamiD J30]

Yea, Dan I agree with you, that there should be 5m splits, because then me could be more accurate with split times, and can give out the top speed of an individual. 5m splits would be a very good way to distribute the split times of races. I think X-King has already done some stuff.
Because he sent me all of the major indoor split times, and were in 10m splits, but he had the last 5m in a split (55-60m).

When I wrote those splits, I thought that maybe they were too futuristic.

This may be a little crazy, but I've been thinking a while, why don't they move inside, but keeping the same tracks, there would be no wind, and races could be converted a lot easier. So all of the races would be with no wind, and no debate about which individual ran faster.

[Dan]

That's actually X-King you're agreeing with, not me. I didn't chime in on the subject.

Conway, you might know the answer to this, given your historical knowledge. Prior to the past 5-10 years where we've seen sub 9.90 become the standard of excellence, was it common for top times to really fry the athletes? It would seem the Mo's, Tim's, Ato's, and Dwain's of the world are really having to go to the well to hit these marks, which would support the notion that the top speed potential has been pretty well maxed out and improvements from here on out will be less pronounced (mostly reaction time, initial acceleration, and speed maintenance).

And yes, it will be interesting to see how my law of averages theory holds... The same can be seen within most races. If you have 8 sub-10 guys in a final, 2-3 will run great, 3-4 won't sniff 10.00, and 1-2 will fall off the back of the turnip truck. Tokyo '91 was one of the very few exceptions, as was this year's final but in a much slower context.

Dan
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[MiamiD J30]

Yea, my bad on before, I kinda got mixed up.
Since you think 0.70-0.75s will be achieved in the next 10 yrs X-King.

What do you all think will be the fastest 10m split time in the next 10 yrs.
And do you think 5m split times should be analyzed?

I think 0.73-0.75s will be the fastest 10m in the next 10 yrs.
But I've seen 0.37 in 5m, and I bet Greene has got 0.35, so I think it is very possible that 0.70 can be achieved.

I also think 5m and 10m sections should be analyzed.

What do you all think about all of this?

Jason

[MiamiD J30]

Woops sorry, my comp messed up, so it sent the post twice.
My bad.
Sry guys:(

[Dan]

[Dan]

[MiamiD J30]

X-King sent me a list of all the indoor splits, I could forward all of them to you.

But i saw a 0.37 or in 5m.

This is what he said:

[Dan]

I'm pretty skeptical of any 5m splits that fast. Too much chance of inaccuracy in analyzing such a short period. The fact that such a fast 5m split was derived from 55m/60m times tells me some of those split times that make up the total are wrong, rather than indicating how fast he could have run 10m in. Garbage in, garbage out, so to speak.

For those 50m and 55m splits to be correct, he would have had to slow down phenomenally (sp?) over the last 5m. 0.45, 0.45, 0.37, 0.46. That kind of acceleration and deceleration in such a short period of time is next to impossible in a fast overall race.

You have to look at what the data is really telling you, not at what you want it to tell...

Dan
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