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Dan · Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 11:42 am Post subject:

I've watched Mo run the 200 a couple of times at the early season Pre meet in Eugene. They've been wind aided, but they showed his ability to comfortably run in the 19.7x range if he's in the right rhythm. I haven't figured out what it is, but something about his 200m form seems to change when he runs it later in the season, and it isn't a change for the better. He goes from powering smoothly through the turn to looking like a train that's about to jump the track. Doubling early season may be good, given his conditioning appears properly geared toward it at that time. Doubling later in the season leaves me with a very nervous feeling...

Dan
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X King · Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 11:42 am Post subject:

I also think that other goals that MO has set himself in both the 60m and 100m Sprints are very reasonable and ,once again,very achievable.
As you all know MO has said that he wants to achieve a time of 6.36 or 6.37 in the 60m indoors this year.This is achievable considering that his best 60m Split taken from an outdoor 100m race is a 6.33(From my Video-Tape Analysis of Greene in Edmonton WCh '01) during his 9.82 in Edmonton '01.And,if I'm right, there seems to be some kind of pattern between Athletes 60m times Indoors,and their 60m Split Outdoors.
From the times that I have both taken from my Videos and seen from various Literature,there is difference of about 0.03-0.12. Outdoors being faster than Indoors of course!!! So the time that Greene is predicting is about right(6.33+0.03=6.36 or 6.33+0.04=6.37)
And about the time that MO is saying for the 100m. At least 9.7s DEAD three times this season and a possible sub-9.70 clocking for the Greene. I believe these times that he's saying are achievable. Because MO says that he is training more harder and more vigorous than before.And since he started in October,he has more time to get ready for the upcoming season than most Athletes have.A very wise decision,because he started training since he ended his season early from the problems and troubles that he had.
So if the info' and points that I have listed are taken into consideration,Greene is the MAN!!!
So all I can say is,go get 'em Greene!!! :supergrin:
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Dan · Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 11:46 am Post subject:

Paul · Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 1:20 pm Post subject:

One of the problems Greene faces is age. When you start to reach your early 30's you simply start losing that great elasticity you had in your 20's. Your body becomes more brittle. By increasing his volume and intensity to compensate for this 100-200 double he may be setting himself up for physical problems down the road. I'm sure he would like to extend into the next Olympic year, his final season, I would assume.

Paul
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Dan · Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 1:25 pm Post subject:

Agreed. Although, I think he's only 28 or 29 this year, so he should be right around 30 for the Olympics.

Dan
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Paul · Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2003 2:27 pm Post subject:

Dan, you're correct. He'll be 29 in April, that means over 30 when the Olympics occur. We shall see how it goes!
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Conway · Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2003 6:53 am Post subject:

All good poinnts you guys bring up ... Mo is reaching what now seems to be prime sprinting age ... Back in the day (1980) Mennea and Wells became the oldest sprint winners ever at the Olympics at the age of 28 each !!!! Now that is young ... Linford was around 32 I believe in Barctelona and then set his PR the following year in Stuttgart ... Lewis was also about 30 when he won in Tokyo and set his WR !!! So at 28 Mo still has a lot of good sprinting left in him as long as he takes care of his body ... And people forget that he is only 6 months older than Montgomery ...

But I agree that he will have to be judicious in his running of the 200 in competition ... Perhaps maybe three times before nationals (average once a month) ... Then if he makes the team maybe twice in Europe before Worlds ... Dan I agree that sometimes he pushes too hard later in the season when running the turn ... But in '99 he had it down ... HE cruised at Worlds then and I think he can do that again ..

As far as his predictions for the season I think he can break his indoor record ... But running multiple 9.7s ... As much as I like Mo that would be the equivalent of running 19.32 ... IF he can do that then he should be able to go sub 9.7 !!! We'll see ..
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Justin · Varsity Joined: 08 Oct 2001 Posts: 312 Location: London

I don't think 9.70 is in the same category as 19.32. Mo has already run 9.79 in less than favourable conditions - with a Monty-style reaction time and following wind Mo would have run nearer 9.69 than 9.79 in Athens. He has also run 9.80 with just 0.2 wind and 9.82 with a -0.2 wind. All those are worth near-9.70 with better help.

On the other hand 19.32 is 0.34 faster than any other run including by MJ himself. It was a one-off, unique run. The 100m equivalent would be nearer 9.60 than 9.70.

Mo is simply stating what he believes he is capable of based on what he has already done. As for 200m, any man who can run 10.00 should be able to run near 20.00 and a 9.79 man should be capable of 19.80 with no training whatever. If Mo is in 9.70 100m form, 19.70 for 200m is possible with no major change to his training - I don't think that he will relay team with 3 men under 10.00 be training much differently with a 100m/200m focus than if he only planned to run the 100m. Relaxation at speed is a prime requisite of 100m running as well. The bigger challenge for Mo over 200m is his relative lack of experience - he may have to learn how best to pace a 200m for his abilities.

Jason Gardener ran 6.54 and 6.52 yesterday in Erfurt - much the bast o far this year and an excellent start, hopefully indicating that one of the UK's most talented sprinters (6.46/9.98 man remember) is getting back to his best.

Justin

Dan · Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2003 10:01 am Post subject:

Three dips under 9.80 in one season is asking a lot of the body. Surprised

We all know he's capable of doing it once per year, maybe even coming close a second time, but three times??? I'm not even sure that's a wise goal, let alone an attainable one. That sort of performance is in the "once in a lifetime" category, i.e. the type of thing that places immense stresses on the body. Just ask Monty after his 9.78...

Now, Mo is obviously a unique athlete who can run in the 9.8's on a fairly regular basis, but he's still somewhat limited by being a mere human. Top athletes tend to talk about record attempts each week, but the results on the track indicate they usually are more concerned with the win and end up only going after the record if everything is falling into place perfectly. For Mo to basically say he's going to break the record 3 times this year implies he'll be going after it every race, which could be terribly taxing come season's end.

On the other hand, if he is able to do it, that places him in uncharted territories where he might have an MJ-like breakthrough performance. Still, even MJ didn't have a huge sequence of marks leading up to the 19.32. He was just primed to do it when the situation presented itself, having proven once at the trials that he had it in him. Had he done it another 2 times during the lead-up to Atlanta (as opposed to trading wins with Frankie), he probably would have had much less in him when it counted.

Dan
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X King · Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2003 11:19 am Post subject:

Dan · Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2003 12:13 pm Post subject:

What's the basis for assuming a slow or average reaction time will affect any other stage of the race? I've seen lots of people get out of the blocks slow and make up for it with a vicious acceleration or closing phase, at least in part due to the adrenalin rush of having to make up for lost time.

I think it's dangerous for a statistical analysis to guess at what might have been had the athlete done this or that differently. Best to stick to what the numbers actually show...

Dan
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X King · Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2003 1:14 pm Post subject:

Dan · Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2003 1:18 pm Post subject:

Could is the key word. Lots of things could happen...

Reaction time is just one component of the start, and the start is just one component of the overall race. The important distinction between the reaction time and every other component of the race is that it is a completely isolated incident, not affected by anything which comes before or after it. There's no way of predicting with any certainty what sort of race will result from any given reaction time. Other components of the race are generally more telling of what the overall performance will be like.

Dan
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Conway · Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2003 4:39 pm Post subject:

I agree Justin that 9.70 in and of itself is not equal to one 19.32 ... But, as Dan stated< running under 9.80 three times in the same season, now THAT would be phenoMOnal !!!!! And quite possibly a better achievement than the single 19.32 ... If he does that one of the races would almost have to be sub 9.70, and something in the 9.65 range would be in the 19.32 categaory !!!!

By the way, watched Mo's 6.52 earlier and it was quite effortless looking ... Still not quite as sharge as I've seen him, but he looked good ... Good enough that if things continue in this vein he could be aiming to back up his words ...

DArvis Patton looked nice and relaxed in his 200 win over Capel ... Capel was very ragged at the end of the race (coming off the turn to the tape) ... So I think both of these guys should be factors later in the year ...

And while this is a sprint forum, I have to say that Reina Jacobs looked AWESOME in her 3:59.98 WR run ... Yes that is sub 4 indoors for the women's 1500 !!! An awesome and awe inspiring performance !!!!
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Dan · Posted: Sat Feb 01, 2003 5:08 pm Post subject:

Wow, Regina runs her first sub-4 eve and does it indoor?! Very impressive.

One thing I'll give Maurice, he isn't one to brag when he doesn't feel ready to back it up...

Dan
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