Run-Down Forums

[Dan]

I don't see any physical resemblance. Maybe you mean personality or running style, neither of which I know anything about?

Dan

[Distance_Guru]

She looks about as much like Suzy Hamilton (blond pony tail and running clothes) as mini-me looked like Mike Meyers.
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[Micah Ward]

She certainly looks like she knows her way around a weight room.
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[Dan]

Which is rather ironic, considering she's listed as weighing 93 pounds, as I recall. Even at 5', that's a pretty slender build. Does look solid, though.

It'll be interesting over the next 2+ years to see how she fairs. I'm hopeful her better muscled physique is a sign she's not one of the many young female high school phenoms that gets worse each year as puberty kicks in.

Dan

[Distance_Guru]

When it comes to high school girls next year will tell. She's a sophmore and I always say that the junior year is the year where you can tell if a girl is going to continue to progress or is going to have a drop in performance. She is so small (I'm not even sure she's 5' tall) and slender that any wieght gain would probably slow her down a good bit.
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[will]

I was writing on a post about Ritz the other day and his possible progressions through the 5k time ranks. I said he might be able to run low 13:00's if not under by the end of college. Everyone on the post blasted me. What do you guys think?

Here's my logic. I said that he went from 13:44 to 13:27 in one year, a 2+% improvement. The progression I put forth was 13:15, 13:05, and, 13:00. Firey verbal darts came my way...many of them. Anyhow, I went on to point out that if he were to continue improving at the rate his freshman year's jump went, he'd run 13:10 this year, 12:53, junior year, and, 12:37 senior year. Okay, that's not likely. But, I believe that that sub-low 13:00's is for an American who ran 13:44 in high school. Five years to drop 44 seconds; 4 years (including the redshirt season) to drop 27. Seems reasonable to me.

[Dan]

Large improvements obviously become harder to come by the faster you get, but I don't see any reason why he isn't capable of it. That's more or less the progression Goucher followed, and most would agree Ritz has started out ahead of that comparative curve.

Dan

[will]

Yeah, I think the starting point was my biggest note.

[Hammer]

I believe that +-2% is good for predicting 1 year of improvement. You will have some big +3% but 2% is a good conservative number. I think that you are right on.

[Distance_Guru]

As much fun as it is to try and look into the crystal ball, I think I'll just enjoy watching him run track this year. And the added attention that will bring to college distance running.
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Time is the fire in which we burn