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Dan
Chief Pontificator
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Joined: 22 Mar 1999
Posts: 9334
Location: Salem, OR

PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2002 5:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Call me an idiot, then, because I was one who felt he had the tools to challenge the 800m WR. Smile

My reasoning was pretty simple. Any performance calculator or event conversion tells you that someone capable of a 43 second 400m should be able to easily break 1:42 for 800m (most conversions come out to 1:40, and in fact, the Purdy equivalent of his 400m WR is 1:39.04). That's not to say any 400m runner can make the transition, but I've personally seen a lot who could and I believe a pre-'96 bulked up MJ had the build and stamina to pull it off as well as anyone. When have you ever seen him fade at the end of a quarter? Imagine having the luxury to run the first lap of an 800m a full 7 seconds slower than your 400m best (which you've shown capable of near-duplication almost at will). Don't you think you'd have a pretty good chance of coming back around at close to the same time??? In MJ's case, that would be a 1 second world record...

What's more, the stories I heard back around '95 of Kipketer's workouts would suggest he was training for 1:40, not 1:41 to 1:42. That would be more in line with the WR level of nearby events and what cross over athletes would seem to be capable of.

Dan
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Distance_Guru
World Class
World Class


Joined: 09 Mar 2002
Posts: 1280
Location: Nebraska

PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2002 6:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm afraid that I just don't see it. I never have been a big fan of people saying that someone could just switch events and be better at it than the best in the world. I can't say that I saw MJ fade at the end of a 400, but then Timmy looked pretty good at the end of his world record 100 and I haven't heard anyone talking about him taking out MJ's record. MJ himself was always talking about how if he dedicated himself to the 100 he could be world class at that event, which to me says he knows his range is 400 and under not 800 and under. I just don't feel he had the endurance to double the distance again.

Which brings me to a question I think I might have asked a while back, why aren't there more (or any) world class 400/800 runners. I can't think of any males and I'm not even sure about the females. I just think that physiologically the difference between 400 and 800 is bigger than anywhere else in track when you talk about the progression from one event distance to the next. And that because of that you generally end up with athletes that run the 400 and athletes that run the 800 and not a lot of mixing between these groups.
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Dan
Chief Pontificator
Chief Pontificator


Joined: 22 Mar 1999
Posts: 9334
Location: Salem, OR

PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2002 7:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I actually don't think there's much more difference between the 400/800 than there is between the 800/1500... Juantorena is the most notable male 400/800 elite, but there have been lots and lots of women who have been successful in both (which relates to the recent topic of why women can move across events at a high level so much easier).

Quote:
Timmy looked pretty good at the end of his world record 100 and I haven't heard anyone talking about him taking out MJ's record.

I'm actually surprised there's been so little talk of what Tim could run the 200 in, as it should be a natural fit for him. I guess everyone has been preoccupied with swollen joints and romancing Marion...

There's no way we'll ever know this, but I think Michael would have been better in the 800 than he ever could have been in the 100. I'm not sure I've ever seen the statement(s) you're referring to, but you have to keep in mind a common theme with all sprinters is that they want it to be known they could dominate in the premier event ("World's Fastest Man") if that's what they chose to focus on. I think MJ would have maxed out at 10-flat, assuming he could have even made it through a few races without major injury, which would be the equivalent of say, a 1:44-mid competitively. Good, but not great, and certainly nowhere what he would seem to have been capable of.

Dan
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Conway
Olympic Medalist
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Joined: 25 Aug 2001
Posts: 3570
Location: Northen California

PostPosted: Thu Sep 26, 2002 7:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, where to start to get caught up ???

Not sure if MJ could have run 1:41, but I know he could have run much better than 1:55 ... I ran on the 4 x 8 in high school and ran 1:57.5/1:58 ... And it was real simple - they taught me to pace a 60 sec lap ... Then just finish as best I could the second lap ... A 60 is easy if you have the speed to run in the 47/48 range - which takes some strength and speed endurance ...

The question of 400/800 doublers (for men) comes down to the question of what is the 800 ... Is it an extended sprint or is it a middle distance race ... Most consider it middle distance ... ergo the pleathora of 800/1500 doublers ... But for the most part those are/were very good milers who could run around 1:45 +/- ... As the 800 has gotten faster time wise the needs for the race have moved dmore towards speed ...

During this transition there there have been some who have been very good at both 400 and 800 - Juantorena, Mark Everrett, David Mack, James Robinson, Jose Parrilla are the first that come to mind ... All of whom were sub 1:44 and sub 45 ... As the 800 went into 1:43 terrtory and then 1:42 territory, the need for faster and faster first laps became more critical ... 1:45's / 1:46's could be done with 52/53 sec first laps ... Moving down into the 1:43 / 1:42 range requires 49/50 sec first laps !!! Speed becomes more of a premium ... That or extreme speed endurance strength - to max out what speed an individual does have ...

As more individuals move into the 1:42 range and then the 1:41 range, we'll see more 400 oriented individuals competing (or there won't be many getting there) .. At least in my opinion ... I think that was part of the Borzo experiment this year ... He (the Russians) realize what it is going to take to get to where Kipketer has been !!!

Conway
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